An appearance on China Global South Podcast, Chinese 'firm support' for Lebanon, Iranian attempts to get Russian missiles to Houthis, Iran getting no weapons from China, Deepening US-Gulf ties.
China’s Response to the Wars in the Middle East - China in the Global South Podcast. Michael Shuman and I joined Eric Olander and Cobus van Staden on their excellent China in the Global South Podcast yesterday, and they managed to turn the episode out in something like 13 hours. The invitation was extended to discuss our recent Atlantic Council report, China’s Middle East policy shift from “hedging” to “wedging”, but as always, regional events drove a lot of the discussion. Which is good as it offered a chance to show how the theory behind the report interprets events as they happen. Eric and Cobus are prolific podcasters and their China Global South Project is a great resource.
China firmly supports Lebanon in safeguarding sovereignty, security: Chinese FM - Xinhua. This kicked off the discussion for the podcast above, and a lot of our conversation focused on China’s political positioning in the region since October 7th. It’s not clear what form this ‘firm support’ takes beyond a photo op and rhetoric. I understand the politics behind it but a position that doesn’t acknowledge that Hezbollah is also an active participant in the conflict isn’t particularly useful.
China firmly supports Lebanon in safeguarding its sovereignty, security and national dignity, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said here on Monday.
Wang, also a member of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, made the remarks when meeting with Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib in New York to exchange views on the situation in the Middle East.
With a long-lasting traditional friendship with Lebanon, China has been closely following the latest developments in the region, especially the recent explosions of communication devices across Lebanon, and is firmly opposed to indiscriminate attacks against civilians, he said.
Force does not equate to rightness and violence against violence will not solve the problems in the Middle East, Wang said, adding that China strongly condemns any action that violates the basic norms governing international relations.
The current situation is a manifestation of the spillover effect of the conflicts in Gaza, and China calls for realizing a "permanent ceasefire and comprehensive withdrawal of troops" and ensuring an effective implementation of "the two-state solution," he said.
Exclusive: Iran brokering talks to send advanced Russian missiles to Yemen's Houthis, sources say - Reuters. A popular issue today, as this Soufan Center piece also talks about Houthi engagement with extra-regional actors, primarily Russia and perhaps if you squint enough, China too. The Soufan article bases the analysis about Russia on one incident from July: “According to a range of sources, Russia instead deployed military personnel to Yemen to help advise the Houthis over a three-day period in late July. U.S. intelligence reportedly observed large Russian ships make an unusual stop in the southern Red Sea, where it offloaded Russian personnel to a Houthi boat that ferried the Russians to Yemen.” The rest is largely talking about hypotheticals and the regional pressures that limit what Russia has so far been willing to do with the Houthis. On the China side, also not much to base analysis on: “China is not known to be advising or arming the Houthis, but it has apparently turned a blind eye to Houthi efforts to procure weapons-related technology in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).” So basically, Russia and China aren’t giving the Houthis weapons but there are certain conditions under which it might be possible. For the Reuters story, it’s also dealing with a potential transfer:
Iran has brokered ongoing secret talks between Russia and Yemen's Houthi rebels to transfer anti-ship missiles to the militant group, three Western and regional sources said, a development that highlights Tehran's deepening ties to Moscow.
Seven sources said that Russia has yet to decide to transfer the Yakhont missiles – also known as P-800 Oniks - which experts said would allow the militant group to more accurately strike commercial vessels in the Red Sea and increase the threat to the U.S. and European warships defending them.
The Wall Street Journal reported in July that Russia was considering sending the missiles. Iran's role as an intermediary has not been previously reported.
Really, for Russia - or China - to do this would undermine other relationships with the Saudis, Emiratis, and Israelis, so I don’t think it’s a rational option. It would, however, be a good bargaining chip for Moscow to use in getting something more important later on. No doubt we’ll see more stories about this soon.
China’s Arms Transfer to Iran - Observer Research Foundation. A better title would be ‘China’s Lack of Arms Transfer to Iran’. This piece was cut from an academic journal article, so good on ORF for helping the author get more exposure for his research, but really, a misleading title. The point of the article is how little has been happening in arms sales between the two, a response to a UN arms embargo but also, I suspect, the knowledge that providing Iran with weapons would undermine China’s much more commercially valuable relations with Iran’s Middle East rivals. From the conclusion:
In the past two decades, China has not significantly influenced Iran’s conventional weapons inventory. Tehran has predominantly favored local or Russian options and has retained a minor manufacturing role in the aviation and defense sectors, facing challenges in reverse-engineering advanced technology-based weapons. Furthermore, Iran has not sought assistance from China in its drone production sector, where Tehran has established itself as a significant producer. Finally, although China has played a significant role in Iran’s military advancement and procurement, Iran’s primary power resides in its own domestic production capabilities. Despite common beliefs stemming from the recent Iranian strike on Israel, Iran’s regional deterrence and anti-access/area-denial abilities may take cues from China but are not dependent on or supplied by Beijing.
And some stories that are not directly China-focused. Of course, here in Abu Dhabi the focus continues to be President Sheikh Mohammed Bin Zayed’s state visit to the US, which has been very quietly reported in the major US papers - only the NYTimes had an article on it that I’ve seen so far.
Biden designates UAE as a second major defense partner after India - Reuters. Another sign of deepening ties between the US and the Emirates:
President Joe Biden recognized the United Arab Emirates as a major defense partner of the United States on Monday after talks with its president on topics that included the war in Gaza and growing Middle East instability.
The U.S. designation — India is the only other country to have been designated as such — allows for close military cooperation through joint training, exercises and other collaborative efforts.
President Sheikh Mohamed meets BlackRock, Microsoft and Nvidia executives in US visit - The National.
Sheikh Mohamed's meetings with Mr Fink, Mr Nadella and Mr Huang come a day after he held talks with President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris in Washington.
“The leaders charted an ambitious course for the United Arab Emirates and the United States to lead global efforts to develop and expand new fields central to the global economy, particularly in advanced technologies and the clean energy required to power Artificial Intelligence,” Sheikh Mohamed and Mr Biden said in a joint statement.
They also welcomed the Microsoft-G42 partnership.
“These initiatives mark the beginning of our partnership and investments in the responsible deployment of advanced technologies, clean energy and frontier technologies that will be the engine that powers our interconnected world,” their statement said.
‘Strategic partnership’: US admits Qatar to visa waiver programme - Al Jazeera. I know, not a China story in any way, but certainly interesting and a good reminder that the US has a lot of cards to play in the region too.
Qatar has become the first Gulf country admitted into the US visa waiver programme, the United States has announced, in a move that will allow Qatari citizens to travel visa-free to the country for up to 90 days.