Pekingology on Iran, MBZ to DC, Microsoft-G42 AI cooperation in Abu Dhabi, Egyptian defense contract for PRC's ELINC, Indian investment in Bahrain, a new report from CSIS
Tehran in Transition: Signs of Change Amid Political Stasis by Hongda Fan - Pekingology. If you don’t subscribe to Wang Zichen’s excellent Pekingology Substack you’re missing out. Lots of great content. Today he featured a translation of an article Fan Hongda published recently after a trip to Iran. I’ve mentioned Fan’s work before - he’s one of China’s top Iran experts and it’s always a good idea to read his work. This isn’t political science but rather a reflection after a visit there this summer.
But the larger story of Iran, as always, extends beyond personal freedoms to the broader canvas of its political and social structure. The presidential election in July 2024 offers a snapshot of this tension. Many Iranians, fearful of what a hardline candidate like Saeed Jalili might bring—more stringent social controls, an intensification of Iran’s combative stance on the global stage—turned out to vote for the reformist candidate, Masoud Pezeshkian. Yet even with this victory, the promise of reform has remained elusive. Pezeshkian has yet to display the decisiveness or reformist zeal his campaign promised. The levers of change, it seems, are not solely in his hands.
The real power in Iran remains the shadow government, a formidable force that has long operated behind the scenes, undermining the ambitions of reformist leaders. Analysts often speak of this shadow government as more influential than the president himself, a web of entrenched interests that limits any meaningful shift toward modernization. Since the death of former President Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2017, the reformist movement has been in decline, unable to regain its foothold in the corridors of power. Pezeshkian’s cabinet appointments, chosen more for their political expedience than for their reformist credentials, reflect the limitations of his mandate. The compromises he has made to placate various factions have left many Iranians disillusioned, their hopes for change once again deferred.
Foreign policy, too, remains a stumbling block. Despite calls from within the country to prioritize domestic issues, Pezeshkian’s government continues to support the so-called "Axis of Resistance"—Iran’s long-standing alliances with Palestinian, Lebanese, and Yemeni groups. The assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in late July further entrenched this stance, with the streets of Tehran awash in Palestinian flags and large portraits of the slain leader. The government’s public displays of solidarity made it clear that, despite domestic discontent, Iran’s foreign policy was unlikely to change, at least in the immediate future.
It’s this juxtaposition—of a country visibly changing on the streets but entrenched in old habits at the political level—that lingers in my mind. As I left Tehran, traveling through Dubai on my way back to the United States, the contrast between the two cities was jarring. Tehran’s airport was eerily quiet, almost somber, while Dubai’s buzzed with the frenetic energy of commerce and ambition. Iran, with its rich history and abundant natural resources, should be leading the region. Instead, it finds itself at odds with its own potential.
Iran’s problems are no secret, even within its own borders. There is growing discontent among both the general population and segments of the religious establishment, where reform has become a national conversation. But for all the talk, the questions remain: How can reform be achieved? Who will lead it? And perhaps most importantly, can the system be reformed at all?
I recommend you read the whole piece, it’s worth 10 minutes of your day.
Biden to welcome UAE President Sheikh Mohamed to White House in historic visit - The National. This is actually big news. Skeikh Mohammed bin Zayed hasn’t been to the US in years - since 2017, I think.
President Joe Biden will welcome UAE President Sheikh Mohamed to Washington next week in a “historic” first visit, the White House announced on Wednesday.
National Security spokesman John Kirby said the meeting will be the first by a president of the UAE to the White House, noting that Vice President Kamala Harris would also take part.
“Both the President and the Vice President have spoken with or met with President Mohamed at multiple points throughout the administration, and we look forward to have face-to-face discussions here,” Mr Kirby told reporters.
He said the meeting will discuss bilateral and legal issues, including advanced technology, clean energy, space technology, supply chain and critical infrastructure investments.
The meeting would also discuss the crisis in Sudan, and the nearly year-old war in Gaza, especially the UAE's “essential role” in addressing the humanitarian situation there.
Biden and MBZ in Abu Dhabi.
Microsoft, UAE's AI firm G42 to set up two new centres in Abu Dhabi - Reuters. Perhaps related to MBZ’s announced trip to DC, perhaps not. If you haven’t been following the UAE AI story you really should be. I’ve got notes scattered all over my desk for a longer post on this; I’ll try to put it together soon. For now:
Microsoft Corp. and G42 are establishing two artificial intelligence centers in Abu Dhabi, months after they inked a $1.5 billion deal and the United Arab Emirates firm agreed to divest from China.
One center will help develop best practices and industry standards for the responsible use of AI, according to a statement Tuesday. The US firm will also open its first ‘AI for Good Research Lab’ in the region to support social goals, including advancing food security and strengthening climate resilience.
Egypt’s Arab Organization for Industrialization Partners with China’s ELINC to Manufacture Advanced Defense Systems - Military Africa. More on India-Egypt security ties.
The Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) has announced the signing of a contract with China’s ELINC to manufacture advanced defense systems. This agreement was formalized between the Arab British Dynamics Industries Company (ABD), a subsidiary of AOI, and ELINC during the Egypt International Aviation and Space Exhibition 2024.
The contract was signed by Major General Engineer Yasser Attia, Chairman of ABD, and Yang, Chairman of ELINC, marking the beginning of a strategic partnership aimed at enhancing Egypt’s defense industry. The signing ceremony took place on the first day of AOI’s successful participation in the exhibition, highlighting the organization’s commitment to advancing its technological capabilities.
ELINC, a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Electronics Corporation (CEC), was established in 1989 in Beijing. The company specializes in defense electronics, industry solutions, and cybersecurity, offering state-of-the-art products and systems along with comprehensive life cycle support.
ELINC’s portfolio includes command and control systems, early warning and detection systems, integrated electronic warfare and communication systems, anti-UAV technologies, remote sensing, and optoelectronic equipment.
India invested $200mln in Bahrain last year - Gulf Daily News. Just a short followup after my last post about India in the Middle East:
Indian investments in Bahrain have reached $200 million from the first quarter of last year until the same period this year, reflecting a 15 per cent increase, according to a top diplomat.
India is the sixth largest investor in Bahrain, said Indian Ambassador Vinod Jacob, adding that since the successful state visit of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to Bahrain in August 2019, two-way cumulative investments have risen by 40pc to currently stand at $1.6 billion.
Keep in mind that the Bahraini economy isn’t especially large so you wouldn’t expect enormous numbers. I’ll see if I can get data for Indian investment into other MENA countries for a comparative analysis.
The Middle East’s View of the “China Model” - Center for Strategic & International Studies. By Jon Alterman. Finally, a new report from Jon Alterman at CSIS that looks really interesting. I haven’t had time to read it yet but will try to come back to it next week for a deeper look.