Reactions to the Palestinian unity meetings in Beijing
Today, more on the Palestinian meetings in Beijing and analysis that has followed from China and Israel - and India. I’ve been Zooming with people in DC today and hope that tomorrow I’ll have stitched together a piece on US responses to China’s involvement. Based on conversations so far, reactions there have been very nuanced and reasonable, which doesn’t surprise me at all but might surprise folks who watch a lot of cable news.*
Beijing Declaration on Palestinian unity and China's peace efforts widely hailed - China Daily. The China Daily was a bit suspect in some of the selective praise it pulled together in this piece. Reluctant to bring attention to some of the folks quoted in here, but it gives you a sense of the narrative and who’s promoting it.
International organizations, regional countries and analysts have hailed the Chinese-brokered Beijing Declaration that ends division and strengthens unity among Palestinian factions, citing the "exceptional success in diplomacy" as a breakthrough on the way to UN-supported resolution of Middle East crisis.
China heralds new dawn of hope in the Middle East - China Daily. This is a series of responses from different academics and analysts. Excerpts, but worth reading in its entirety (I included all of Li Xingang’s because it was hard to choose jusy one section):
From Li Weijian, from Shanghai Institute of International Studies: China's recent diplomatic successes in the Middle East mark a significant shift in the region's approach to conflict resolution. By aligning its long-term peace diplomacy with the region's aspirations for development and stability, China has positioned itself as a key player in promoting peace. The journey ahead is fraught with challenges, but China's structured and inclusive approach offers a promising path towards lasting peace and development in the Middle East. As the international community watches closely, China's role in shaping the future of Middle Eastern diplomacy continues to unfold, heralding a new era of hope and cooperation.
From Hussein Askary, vice-president of the Belt and Road Institute in Sweden: This is a major move, because by including all Palestinian factions within the framework of the Palestine Liberation Organization, or letting a joint Hamas-PLO administration be in charge of Gaza rather than Hamas alone, it removes many hurdles for reaching a ceasefire in Gaza.
From Li Xingang, from Zhejiang International Studies University: China's involvement in the Middle East stands out distinctly from other global powers because of its commitment to fairness and justice. Unlike Western countries, which often pursue self-serving agendas, China has maintained relatively friendly relations with all nations in the region without taking sides. Our objective is clear: Promoting peace, stability, and development in the Middle East, aligning with the interests of the people there and fostering cooperation that leads to mutual prosperity. This approach positions China uniquely to advance peace and stability in the region. On the Palestinian issue, China has long been dedicated to seeking a fundamental, fair, and effective resolution.
The core problem lies in Israel's illegal occupation of Palestinian territories. Addressing this issue fundamentally requires internal Palestinian unity, forming a strong community dedicated to nation-building. Only then can the process of establishing a Palestinian state advance more effectively.
China has actively facilitated dialogues among various Palestinian factions, encouraging them to prioritize national interests over party interests. This effort was crucial for the achievement of the Beijing Declaration. Some foreign media have questioned the lack of a timeline for its implementation, but it is important to understand that resolving the Palestinian issue cannot be accomplished overnight. Western nations, particularly the United States, have consistently favored Israel, hindering genuine progress toward peace. In contrast, China's stance of fairness and justice, offers a viable path forward. The journey may be long, but as long as we persist, progress will be made.
Achieving internal Palestinian reconciliation and forming a strong, united front can eliminate the pretext often used by the US and Israel — that there is no viable partner for peace. Once a cohesive Palestinian entity is established, Israel's excuses for avoiding peace negotiations will be invalidated. Recent efforts by China at mediating Middle Eastern affairs demonstrate China's continued commitment to peace, stability, and development of the region.
Critics argue that China's involvement in the Middle East is a strategy to compete with the US for influence. This is a misconception. China does not seek to dominate the Middle East. Unlike the US and some European nations, which have historically tried to control the region to advance their hegemony, China's only goal is to promote peace. This is precisely what the people of the Middle East desire. The American approach of divide and conquer serves its own interests but fails to bring peace and stability to the region.
China, as a country with significant influence, has both the obligation and the capability to contribute to the resolution of the Palestinian issue and the broader Middle East peace process. China's efforts are based on a long-standing principle of cooperation with developing nations, aiming for collective prosperity. China has intensified efforts to promote peace, stability, and development in the Middle East, recognizing that the US' favoritism toward Israel has stalled the peace process.
The signing of the Beijing Declaration underscores China's crucial role in the Middle East peace process. However, we must acknowledge that resolving the Palestinian issue requires a continuous, collective and step-by-step approach. Progress must be irreversible to ensure a sustainable path toward Palestinian independence. With persistent effort, the goal of an independent Palestinian state is within reach.
The Beijing Declaration will have a substantial impact on the Israel-Palestine conflict. Palestinian internal reconciliation will dismantle Israel's longstanding narrative that there is no Palestinian partner for peace. A unified Palestinian front represents the entirety of the Palestinian people, providing a legitimate counterpart for holding negotiations and eliminating Israel's excuses for continued occupation and military actions.
The US' resistance to the Beijing Declaration stems from its desire to maintain hegemony in the Middle East. It wrongly perceives China's actions as a quest for dominance. However, China's objective is clear: the stable development and prosperity of the Middle East align with the interests of its people and provide opportunities for cooperation with China. This approach embodies the vision of a community with a shared future for mankind, focusing on peace, development, and shared prosperity, rather than control and manipulation.
China's dedication to the Middle East peace process is not about seeking power but about fostering a stable and prosperous region. Peace, development, and shared prosperity are China's goals, and these principles guide its actions in the Middle East.
From Tang Zhichao at Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: Recent geopolitical shifts have seen the US marginalize the Palestinian issue, focusing instead on strategic competition and regional alliances against Iran. This has sidelined the core issue of Middle Eastern peace. China, in contrast, maintains that the Palestinian issue is central to regional stability. The renewed focus on this issue amid escalating conflicts highlights the pertinence and realism of China's approach.
Objectivity, credibility key factors for China's role in mediating Palestinian reconciliation talks - Global Times. This was written by Niu Xinchun, vice president at Ningxia University and formerly head of CICIR’s Middle East program. Niu knows the region, which underscores how much domestic political considerations influence the analysis we see from Chinese sources - he understands the complexities of Palestinian politics, but we still get a shallow look at those dynamics combined with an insertion of Chinese initiatives as a motivating factor:
In recent years, China has been actively engaged in international conflict resolution, gaining increasing experience, credibility and influence globally. China's successful mediation in the restoration of Saudi-Iran relations in March 2023 was widely praised internationally. In April 2022, China proposed the Global Security Initiative, which has received support and appreciation from more than 100 countries as well as international and regional organizations. The initiative and its core concepts have been incorporated into more than 90 bilateral and multilateral documents on exchanges and cooperation between China and other countries and international organizations.
China’s Middle East peace drive faces ‘big challenges’ after brokering Palestinian deal - South China Morning Post. Written by Laura Zhou, who consistently files good reporting on the China-Middle East beat for SCMP. This one features a dose of cautious realism, quoting Ma Xiaolin from Zhejiang International Studies University:
"The declaration is a great breakthrough, but it will not be easy to advance it…The first step is to push for a ceasefire, but Israel has not changed its position on Hamas and has rejected Hamas involvement in the post-war governance of Gaza, and this will be the biggest challenge," he said. "Maybe the next step for China is to send a special envoy to persuade Israel."
China successfully mediates Palestinian factions to sign ‘historic declaration’ for reconciliation - Global Times. Triumphalism from GT:
The latest and upcoming events on the Palestine issue and the Ukraine crisis prove that China, which always upholds its stance for peace, is not just talking the talk, but is taking concrete actions to contribute to political settlements, despite the US and US-led military alliances like NATO continuing to add uncertainties and obstacles. China will continue with its efforts to ensure that peace processes in different regions of the world can be delivered eventually, said analysts.
Ma Xiaolin shows up again, this time with less cautious realism, explaining why China’s foray into Palestinian unity will be different than everyone else’s:
Ma Xiaolin, dean of the Institute for Studies on the Mediterranean Rim at Zhejiang International Studies University, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the declaration is absolutely historic, significant and unprecedented. First, in the past, the reconciliation dialogue held by major regional powers in the Middle East was just between Fatah and Hamas, but this time, China gathered together representatives of 14 factions, and this means the declaration has the greatest inclusiveness and legitimacy, and is one that is acceptable to all major political factions within Palestine.
"Second, it makes the reconciliation process of Palestine no longer merely regional affair, but an issue that matters to international peace under the international watch. Therefore, the declaration is not just a document, but a feasible roadmap with international support and supervision from not only regional major countries but permanent members of the UN Security Council," Ma said.
Third, specifying that the PLO is the sole legitimate representative of all the Palestinian people means that all other factions, including Hamas and the Islamic Jihad Movement in Palestine, need to join or reunify with the PLO, so Palestine will be able to have new elections and deal with the outside world as a unified country, and this is important for the future of Palestine-Israel issue, Ma noted.
The third point underscores just how big a challenge this unity agreement faces. Really, I don’t see any way these groups come together, ignore their incompatible agendas, decades of conflict, assassination attempts, etc…
Not surprisingly, the view from Israel hasn’t been been positive.
Hamas, Fatah Sign Palestinian 'Unity' Agreement in China, With No Practical Significance - Haartz. Reporting from NYTimes and Washing Post, both included in yesterday’s newsletter, claimed that the Palestinians were basically trying to make their Chinese hosts happy by agreeing to a statement that they have little interest in following. This piece promotes a similar logic:
A senior Fatah official, however, said that the joint statement was mainly intended to show respect to the Chinese hosts, as in similar past conventions in Moscow and Algeria, and therefore it does not have much practical significance.
Getting into the local dynamics that make an agreement challenging:
Sources told Haaretz that the different Palestinian factions – especially Hamas and Fatah – do not have answers to the main issues regarding Gaza and the West Bank's future, like the war's duration, the scale of the potential Israeli withdrawal and what will be the status of Hamas, the Palestinian Authority and Fatah once it ends.
As long as these issues await resolution, either ones of the sides involved cannot initiate a practical move that will establish a national government.
In addition, the formation of such a unified Palestinian government will require measures that only great powers can provide, to deal with the enormous challenges that will arise, especially surrounding Gaza's reconstruction.
A senior Fatah official familiar with the talks told Haaretz that in the current state of affairs, a decision on the funding of a unified Palestinian government relies on external factors such as the United States, Israel and the Arab countries. Therefore, the source added, the declaration does not indicate any concrete moves that could be implemented in the near future.
The Palestinian factions admit, however, that the events of the last months require them to at least give the impression of pushing for Palestinian unity.
Beijing Declaration on Palestinian unity and China's peace efforts widely hailed - China Daily - Jerusalem Post. Seth Frantzman addresses Israeli concerns here as well:
If the Palestinian groups agree to more unity under China’s guidance, it could put Israel in a difficult position. This is because it would enable the backers of Hamas, such as Russia, Turkey and Qatar, to push for Hamas to play a larger role in the West Bank.
He also gives a take on internal Palestinian considerations:
According to the pro-Iran Al-Mayadeen media, a member of the Political Bureau of Islamic Jihad, Ihsan Ataya, said that the group did not agree to any formula that stipulates international resolutions that would lead to recognition of the legitimacy of the “entity,” meaning Israel. In fact, PIJ wants the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) to withdraw recognition of the Jewish state. It demanded in Beijing to create an “emergency committee” to “manage the battle” against Israel.
Why China has moved to try and reconcile Hamas and Fatah - Observer Research Foundation. By friend of the podcast Kabir Taneja. I’ve been emphasizing India’s importance as an extra-regional actor in the Middle East a lot over the past couple of years. I remember a trip to Tel Aviv in September 2022 when everyone was talking about China, which was shortly followed by the I2U2 Minister’s meeting. When I returned in December 2022, many of the folks who were talking up China were instant India experts. I know lots of folks who are skeptical but I’m all in. India in the Gulf is real, and you should be paying more attention to what Indian analysts are thinking, saying, and writing. Kabir is someone you should definitely be following.
This is China placing itself as the antithesis to the US in particular, and the West in general. It has repeatedly raked up the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as examples of military-based policies to deeper political problems. China’s Special Envoy for the Middle East, Zhai Jun, was very active in the days after the October 8 attacks. Zhai made calls across the board to both regional leaders and those from the Global South, calling for a two-state solution, and an immediate end to hostilities from all sides. On 14 October 14 2023, Wang, talking to his counterpart in Saudi Arabia, criticised Israeli retaliation, demanded a stop to its “group punishment”, and highlighted the “historical injustice” against Palestine which cannot go on any longer. This position is reiterated to this day.
This increasingly vocal stance, and the willingness to take difficult decisions over mediation, does provide Beijing good headlines in the international arena. This is particularly true in the Muslim world and the Global South. However, China’s willingness to be engaged in the Middle East remains strategically distant. A failure of this version of Palestinian reconciliation will not cost Beijing too much. The blame for such a fall will come squarely on the Palestinian factions. It will, however, strengthen its position amidst the Arab world further. For a long while now, China’s policy for the region has been ‘we do what the Arabs want’. This is further substantiated by the fact that, despite the attempts to maintain balance, Beijing did not have much of a problem setting its bilateral with Israel ablaze. China having not condemned Hamas by name yet is a cornerstone of this dissolution. In the long term, China’s calculations come from its position within the ensuing great power competition with the US.
* The last time I actively watched cable news was the day Osama bin Laden was killed, which a quick Google search tells me was 13 years ago. My wife came home from a walk and told me that he ran into a neighbor who’d told her the news. We turned on CNN and immediately remembered why we don’t watch the news. I highly recommend only using your TV for stuff that makes you laugh or feel good. TV news is designed to make you feel bad.