6.3.2024
Iran objects, China in the halal market, report on the Global Security Initiative
The CASCF tide has receded, thankfully since I have several big writing projects that need to get wrapped up soon. The big story today isn’t much of a story, really:
Iran's foreign ministry summons Chinese ambassador in Tehran over Gulf Islands - Reuters. Last week Iran International reported that there was some horse trading to keep the islands dispute out of the joint statement. Guess it didn’t work.
"Iran's objection to the Chinese support of baseless claims in a shared UAE-China statement has been expressed to the Chinese ambassador in Tehran … Iran's foreign ministry emphasises that the three Islands are an eternal part of the country's soil and we expect China to mend its position on the issue", state media added.
I don’t think there’s much Iran can do other than complain. I’ve been arguing for years that the asymmetry in the China-Iran relationship is the biggest variable that a lot of folks seem to miss when looking at what the two countries do together. China is always in a position to take Tehran or leave it. Iran doesn’t have that luxury; it needs Beijing. And China gets a lot more out of its relationship with the UAE. No doubt I’m repeating myself here, but for those of you who haven’t heard/read me on China’s position between the GCC countries and Iran, there are said to be around 400,000 PRC nationals in the UAE alone. There are fewer than 10,000 in Iran. China-UAE trade crossed the $100 billion mark in 2022. China-Iran trade (not the illicit stuff) was just over $12 billion. China does more contracting on the Arab side of the Gulf, more investing there, and as we just saw last week, a whole lot more diplomacy. Iran will complain, but it’s going to to make a difference.
If you are looking for a deeper dive into the China-Iran-GCC triangle, this open-source academic paper I published a couple of years ago still holds up, I think, although obviously the data on trade and investment needs to be updated.
Since it’s a bit of a slow news day, a couple of other things that caught my eye over the weekend:
China’s Burgeoning Halal Trade: Implications for the Arab World - by Zaynab El Bernoussi and Najwa Belkziz for Carnegie’s Middle East Program. This is a really interesting report on a $2.3 trillion market that is under-analyzed by most.
Here, China has emerged as a significant force. In 2021, it was the leading exporter of halal goods and services to the fifty-seven member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), with in trade value of $40.4 billion. Chinese exports include modest clothing, halal media, and recreational goods such as books, toys, and games, but most notable is China's takeover of a bigger share in the halal pharmaceuticals and cosmetics sectors.
China’s Global Security Initiative at Two: A Journey, Not a Destination - by M. Taylor Fravel for China Leadership Monitor. CLM is a fantastic resource that you should absolutely subscribe to, and Fravel’s work is top-shelf on Chinese defense and security issues.