China and Iranian Protests.
I was on a client call yesterday with an international financial institution and the topic was the protests in Iran. I’ve done several of these calls for this institution before, and I’m always introduced as an expert on China in the Middle East. I only bring this up because none of the clients had any questions about how Chinese officials or businesses could be expected to respond to the crisis in Iran. There were smart questions about Middle Eastern actors and the US, but nothing about China. I found that interesting since a lot of narratives run along the lines of ‘what will China do to save its ally in Tehran?’ By now we should all know the answer: nothing.
Yes, Iran is an important partner to China, but I don’t think Beijing is particularly wedded to the Islamic Republic. There is utility in a large anti-Western government in the Gulf, but whether that’s run by the Ayatollah or the military or a council of elders, I think Beijing is largely agnostic. As long as the energy flows, they’re fine with it.
Look at the first link below, from the South China Morning Post. There are extended quotes from three Chinese Middle East experts, and none of them predict any direct action in Iran, regardless of what happens to the regime. Similarly, nothing from the MOFA spokeswoman that would indicate a serious response from China.
After these links I’ve re-posted some content on the China-Iran relationship that you may find useful. In October 2024 I did a series of video posts here about the China-Iran relationship. I’m re-sharing them here since most current subscribers weren’t following the newsletter then and likely haven’t seen them.
Also in October ‘24 I put together a China-Iran reading list that makes a really strong starting point for anyone looking to get up to speed on the bilateral relationship.
Why China may not act in Iran even though it has ‘more to lose’ than in Venezuela - South China Morning Post.
Wen Shaobiao, a Middle East specialist at Shanghai International Studies University:
“If regime change leads to social chaos, civil war or fragmentation, it would result in long-term challenges for state-building and social governance,” Wen said.
“It could even precipitate a massive refugee crisis, exacerbating pressure on Iran’s neighbours.
“If a major upheaval were to occur in Iran, it would have significant repercussions for the peace and prosperity of the Middle East. This would potentially jeopardise our trade and investments in the region, a scenario we certainly do not wish to witness.”
“As usual, we would refrain from intervening in their domestic affairs … Beijing might maintain a calm observation posture and under no circumstances be entangled,” he said.
Yan Wei, deputy director of the Institute of Middle Eastern Studies at China’s Northwest University:
“We could extend active political and diplomatic support to Iran, like with Venezuela, empowering them to resist external coercion … but as for direct intervention, I think this is unrealistic, specifically in light of our long-established diplomatic traditions.”
Ni Lexiong, a professor of political science at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law:
“China’s approach to the Iran crisis is to avoid military involvement and instead call for dialogue and reconciliation.”
He added that Beijing had no “direct security concerns” in Iran and wanted to avoid being forced to “take sides”.
Iran Pulls Out of Naval Exercise With China, Russia at Last Minute: Report - Newsweek. This hits Iran where it hurts, and seriously undermines BRICS expansion, one would think. Joining BRICS and the SCO gave the Iranian government legitimacy at home, showing its citizens that while the regime was under constant attack from the US and its allies, it had powerful important partners that represented the majority of the world’s population. Getting bumped from the BRICS naval exercises when they were already there participating is as public a rebuke as it gets. Last post I described it as “one more (joint military drill) to add to the spreadsheet.” Turns out its really one more nail in the coffin.
The bigger issue is what it tells prospective BRICS members: “we want you to join, we want the narrative power of you signing up for our alternative global governance organization, but don’t expect us to support you when the chips are down.”
Iran was asked to withdraw from upcoming naval drills with China and Russia in South Africa, according to local media.
South African outlet News24 reported that Iran will no longer take part in the “Will for Peace 2026” joint maritime drill involving BRICS countries alongside Russian, Chinese and Emirati warships.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on January 12, 2026 - PRC MoFA.
Bloomberg: The death toll in the Iran protests is now more than 500 and Donald Trump has indicated that he may strike Iran if it uses lethal force against demonstrators. Would the Foreign Ministry like to comment on this?
Mao Ning: China hopes the Iranian government and people will overcome the current difficulties and uphold stability in the country. China always opposes interference in other countries’ internal affairs, advocates that all countries’ sovereignty and security should be fully protected by international law, and opposes the use or threat of force in international relations. We call on parties to act in ways conducive to peace and stability in the Middle East.
AFP: It’s a follow-up question about the protests in Iran. Some press reports mentioned several hundreds died. Were any Chinese citizens among the dead or injured and are you calling on Chinese nationals to leave Iran?
Mao Ning: We are following closely the situation in Iran. So far we have not received report about Chinese casualties in the country. We will do everything we can to protect the safety of Chinese nationals in Iran. We would like to remind Chinese nationals there to follow the developments of the local security situation, and take necessary measures to keep themselves safe. Those in need for help can contact the Chinese Embassy in Iran or dial the consular service hotline.
Anadolu Agency: President Donald Trump also in yesterday’s remarks said that his administration is closely monitoring the situation in Iran and he is presented with “very strong options.” It’s been reported that a range of options, from sanctions and cyber measures to potential military action had been considered. What’s China’s comment?
Mao Ning: We stand against interference in other countries’ internal affairs, advocate that all countries’ sovereignty and security should be fully protected, and oppose using or threatening to use force in international relations.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning’s Regular Press Conference on January 13, 2026 - PRC MoFA.
China-Arab TV: U.S. President Donald Trump said yesterday that any country doing business with Iran will pay a tariff of 25 percent on any and all business being done with the U.S. What is China’s comment?
Mao Ning: China’s position on the tariffs issue is very clear. Tariff wars have no winners. China will firmly protect its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.
Reuters: Also related to President Trump’s threat of the 25 percent tariffs on countries that trade with Iran, should President Trump make good on this threat, Chinese exporters could find themselves facing high tariffs at the U.S. border. Would Beijing consider this a return to a tariff war?
Mao Ning: As I just said, tariff wars have no winners. China will firmly protect its legitimate and lawful rights and interests.
Bloomberg: Iran has reportedly been asked to withdraw from the BRICS war games off South Africa and accept observer status. Can you confirm this or explain why this might have happened?
Mao Ning: I’d refer you to competent authorities.
AFP: Again on the protests in Iran, according to some reports, several hundreds of people have been killed in these protests. In this context, does China still advise its citizens to travel to Iran for tourism?
Mao Ning: We are closely following the developments of the situation in Iran. We will take all measures necessary to protect the safety of Chinese nationals.