China-Egypt air force joint exercises conclude
The big China-MENA story this week has been the conclusion of the China-Egypt joint air force exercises, which is being described (in this Arab News article) as China “chipping away at US strategic influence in the volatile region.” I’m always reluctant to give too much weight to this kind of analysis since I think it mischaracterizes a Chinese approach to the region that remains, in my opinion, more economic than strategic. In a piece I published earlier this year for Atlantic Council on the China-Egypt relationship, I concluded:
At the start of Sisi’s decade in power, the China relationship looked like the best option available to a government without a lot of options. Since then, it has become a more serious partnership. China’s power and influence in the Middle East has increased and Egypt has emerged as a useful partner. At the same time, when I ask Egyptians about China, they do not describe the relationship as comprehensive or strategic—they call it transactional. Few see China as a country with the willingness or capacity to play a leading role in the Middle East. If the coming decade follows the same pattern as the previous one, however, China could be a much more influential actor in Cairo, making a much more complex Middle East for US diplomacy.
And in a report I wrote for the UK’s Ministry of Defence, also earlier this year, (published here with Atlantic Council), I also noted the transactional nature of a lot of what China’s doing here, and found that most people I spoke with in the region saw it in those terms - it does business here but it reluctant to participate meaningfully in political or security issues.
At the same time, it’s worth considering at what point all of these transactions start to add up to something more. The weight of its economic interests in the region; the depth of its engagement in contracting, renewable energy, trade, construction; the huge quantities of energy it imports - it makes sense that Beijing would come to see a deeper role as a necessity at some point. And it is very clear that the Trump administration is not particularly interested in maintaining its outsized role in regional affairs. I think this is going to be a really uncertain time in MENA, and tensions within make extra-regional partners that much more important. The US will continue to have interests here, but it seems that this administration has assessed that it can get most of what it needs here with a less substantial approach. I guess we’ll know more after next week’s visit to Saudi, Qatar and the UAE, but my impression right now is that the US government is going to do less with less, that regional actors are going to have fewer constraints coming from DC.
So, today I’m sharing some analysis and reporting of the China-Egypt joint exercises. Of course, the J10 stories continue to trickle out. In conversations with people who track this seriously, I continue to hear that this is not happening. A Chinese person I spoke with pointed out that even if Beijing was willing to give the jets to Egypt free of charge, the costs of integrating them into their existing systems, the training, and the maintenance would still be prohibitively expensive. I don’t know anything about that, but this person does, and I thought it was an interesting point. Others have said that their professional networks have seen nothing to indicate that this deal is in the works, and their professions watch this kind of thing closely. We might be surprised, but I seriously doubt it. The Egyptian military’s self-interest would dictate that it not take Chinese jets - the $1.3 billion in Foreign Military Financing it gets from the US needs Congressional approval, and if there’s one thing Republicans and Democrats can agree on, it’s China. I suspect there’d be a $1.3 billion shortage in the Egyptian military’s budget if it went the J10 route.
Egypt’s Strategic Shift: Why Turning to China is a Necessity, Not a Choice - Daily News Egypt.
For decades, Egypt has been told what weapons it may possess, how it may defend itself, and what threats it should prioritize—all dictated by Washington’s rigid commitment to maintaining Israel’s military supremacy. Last week’s historic drills with China were not just military exercises; they were a declaration of sovereignty: Egypt will no longer accept being a second-tier ally in its own region.
The Cost of American “Friendship”
The $1.3 billion in annual US military aid has always come with invisible chains:
We receive older F-16s while Israel gets stealth F-35s
Our air defence requests are denied as “too advanced”
Even our Abrams tanks come deliberately downgraded
This isn’t partnership—it’s patronage, designed to keep Egypt permanently dependent and deliberately weaker than its neighbour.
China Offers What America Won’t
The J-10CE fighters, HQ-9 missile systems, and Type 99 tanks displayed in last week’s drills represent more than hardware—they represent autonomy. Unlike the US, China:
Provides advanced systems without political sermons
Includes technology transfer for domestic production
Respects Egypt’s right to determine its own defence needs
China, Egypt wrap up first joint air force training, practice air superiority combat, suppressive air defense - Global Times.
This joint training marked the first time the PLA Air Force has deployed a systematic force to Africa for such exercises, according to the PLA Air Force.
Upon arrival, the PLA Air Force swiftly completed preparations including equipment setup, theoretical instruction, mission planning, and command coordination, and successfully conducted the first flight, which demonstrated the PLA Air Force's capabilities in long-range deployment, agile operations, and integrated combat systems, the PLA Air Force said in a press release.
During the 18-day training, the two sides engaged in discussions and exchanges on training methodologies, air combat tactics, aerial refueling, and other areas. They also successfully carried out exercises such as air superiority combat, suppressive air defense, battlefield search and rescue, and mixed formation drills, according to the release.
Long Yifei from the PLA Air Force said that during the joint drill, the Y-20 transport aircraft and YU-20 aerial tanker played a crucial role in systematic rapid force projection and supporting the agile deployment of aerial combat systems, providing valuable experience for deepening future combat-oriented training.
Videos and photos released by the PLA Air Force show the deployment of equipment such as the KJ-500 early warning aircraft, the J-10C fighter jet, the Z-20 helicopter and the YU-20 tanker aircraft.
During a training session, the PLA Air Force's YU-20 tanker aircraft conducted an in-flight refueling operation for the Egyptian Air Force's MiG-29 fighter jets, one of the photos shows.
Another photo shows that some of the main warplanes participating in the exercise formed formation and flew over the Pyramids at very low altitudes in Cairo.
Chinese fighter jets soar over Egypt in first joint exercises - Arab News.
China’s military on Monday released videos of its fast jets, helicopters and transport planes flying high above the Sahara and hailing inaugural joint air force exercises with Egypt as “a signal of deepening military ties and shifting alliances.”
The joint exercises with one of the United States’ biggest security partners come as Washington increasingly turns inward under President Donald Trump, allowing China to deepen ties across North Africa and invest billions in security projects.
“As Egypt looks beyond its traditional US partnership, a new era of cooperation is taking flight over Cairo’s skies,” said a video released by the international division of state broadcaster CCTV, as a jet plane takes off into the night.
'Eagles of Civilization 2025' the joint Egypt-China air force drill and its significance - Jerusalem Post.
Egypt and China have completed a joint air force drill dubbed “Eagles of Civilization 2025,” an exercise that is significant and symbolic for the two countries.
First, it highlights China’s success in making more military inroads in the region. Second, Egypt is Israel’s neighbor and a US ally, underscoring Beijing’s growing clout and power in key areas. There were several days of training at an Egyptian airbase, according to a statement from the Egyptian military.
Cairo says the drill was part of the Egyptian Armed Forces’ joint training plans with allied and friendly nations.
“It aims to strengthen military ties and combat readiness of the Egyptian and Chinese air forces, ” Egypt’s Al-Ahram said.
The Egyptian Air Force commander, the Chinese Air Force chief of staff, the Chinese ambassador to Cairo, and senior military officials from both sides attended. During the training, multi-role fighter jets from both sides conducted joint sorties to simulate precision attacks, asset defense, and aerial refueling drills, the report said.