Chinese analysis on the war in Iran

Since this war started I’ve seen a lot of pieces from think tankers in DC who try to explain why this has something to do with China, and frankly I usually just skip past them. They’re mostly garbage, and it’s become very clear that the war has more to do with a broken decision making process in an administration full of enabling careerist cowards and a president very much out of his depth. And a lot of these pieces are written by people hoping to hitch their wagons.

So rather than reading hacks that haven’t actually studied anything about China, here is some commentary from China that should give you a sense of what Chinese analysts think about the war.

The common threads throughout:

• A deep concern about escalation: It’s a point that I frequently make when discussing China’s economics-driven approach to the region - Beijing prizes stability. In these commentaries, you see a narrative of the US and Israel undermining that stability through a reckless and poorly-planned war. The Global Times, not known for its cautious and measured language, sees a “perilous escalation of the conflict” that has “edged steadily toward the brink of losing control,” and warns “The conflict is now on the brink of complete loss of control, where every misjudgment and each escalation could lead to irrevocable consequences.”

• Nobody is blaming Iran: There is some both sides-ism going on, as in “Both sides have also attacked civilian and energy facilities.” But generally, the theme throughout is that the US and Israeli intervention and escalation started this, and Iran is reactive and defensive.

• Skepticism about the US: There is a common narrative that US actions are destabilizing, legally questionable, and unlikely to achieve decisive results, especially regime change. US hegemony is seen as the cause of this war and also a victim of it; Lau writes that after this war “US global hegemony will become unsustainable, and the international order will undergo a reconstruction.” Another common thread is a war based on incorrect assumptions, or as the Global Times writes, “severe strategic miscalculations and a morality deficit.” Fan Hongda, one of China’s top Iran specialists who has also spent significant time in both US and Israeli universities, writes, “The US and Israel clearly underestimated Iran’s ability to resist and counterattack, while significantly overestimating the likelihood of a popular uprising within Iran.”

• Concerns about unintended consequences: Throughout these pieces there’s an emphasis on second-order effects, like strengthening Iran internally, accelerating regional fragmentation, and reshaping global economic/geopolitical alignments. Zhang’s piece on North Africa is especially interesting, and something I’ve been noticing really since the G42-Microsoft deal appeared to limit China’s AI ambitions for the UAE; that other markets in the region become a useful fall-back.

• A framing of this as nudging along an inevitable multipolarity: Really, this is the key takeaway, I think. One week into the war, I wrote “it creates space for the PRC to build a consensus with other countries that share the view of the U.S. as the primary threat to global stability.” Throughout the commentary below, what you see is the last gasp of hegemony. Shou writes, “Can U.S. foreign policy break free from the recurrent cycle of overexpansion and isolationist retreat to find a third way? Or is it destined to exhaust its remaining hegemonic capital in this oscillation between self-aggrandizement and contraction?” Fan writes about the reputational costs: “President Trump’s unnecessary war against Iran, which violates international law, has further tarnished the US’s international image.”

Obviously, these don’t represent the whole spectrum of analysis coming out of China, but I think they’re worth reading and considering. I’ve highlighted Fan Hongda, Zhang Chuchu and Jin Liangxiang frequently in this newsletter. I’ve met each of them and have always found them thoughtful, sharp, and deeply knowledgeable. I don’t know Shou or Lau or their work, and The Global Times is kind of the Fox News of China, so take that for what it’s worth. Still, the point holds - it’s worth reading what serious people in China are thinking about this war.

A month into the conflict, it’s time to press pause on this war - Global Times.

It has now been a full month since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28. Far from achieving their so-called “intended objectives,” this conflict, which was initiated by the US and Israel without justification amid negotiations, has instead edged steadily toward the brink of losing control. Although it is uncertain how this conflict will end, its shock to geopolitics and the global order is already profound. What is urgently needed now is to prevent this conflict - one that should never have happened - from sliding into the abyss of complete loss of control.

Iran war hastens collapse of US-built Middle East order - Lau Siu-kai, for China Daily.

The Iran war has harmed the entire world, undoubtedly damaging the US’ reputation, credibility, and soft power. More allies will distrust Washington’s security commitments and adopt alternative security strategies. US global hegemony will become unsustainable, and the international order will undergo a reconstruction.

The illusion of decapitation: Why killing Iran’s leaders strengthens the regime - Fan Hongda, for Think China.

President Trump’s unnecessary war against Iran, which violates international law, has further tarnished the US’s international image. The fact that the war has not proceeded as envisioned by Washington policymakers, along with the war-related challenges faced by the Trump administration, is also inconsistent with the vision of “Make America Great Again”.

As for the China angle:

With the US launching military strikes against Iran, two out of the world’s three leading powers are now at war. From the perspective of great power competition, China, focused on its own development, finds itself in an international environment that is at least not unfavourable. Moreover, the possible continued export of Iranian oil to China, coupled with the country’s long-standing emphasis on new energy sources, has prevented an energy crisis, such as an oil shortage, from arising in China.

Between Stupid Stuff and Epic Fury - Shou Huishung, for China-US Focus.

Donald Trump is deconstructing U.S. foreign policy through his erratic decision-making and appetite for political theater. The correction likely depends less on any single president but on whether America can build more stable strategic assessment mechanisms, more open decision-making processes and more resilient policy-correction capacity.

World Paying the Price for Trump’s War - Jin Liangxiang, for China-US Focus.

The current war on Iran is, in some respects, an extreme manifestation of hegemony. The whole world is paying the price for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the United States could be among those that will pay the heaviest price. If the U.S. is not honestly changing its policy, this could really be the moment that the U.S. could finally lose its hegemony.

How Iran War Is Reshaping China’s Geo-Economic Cooperation with North Africa - Chuchu Zhang, for Stimson Center.

In response, Beijing has accelerated a dual-track strategy of multi-source procurement and accelerated green transformation, deliberately broadening its oil and gas import footprint while fast-tracking the development of new-energy technologies. Within this recalibration, North Africa — geographically proximate, politically stable in key partners, and richly endowed with both hydrocarbons and renewable potential — has emerged as a pivotal arena for deepened geo-economic cooperation.