Chinese surveillance satellites for Iran? Commentary on China-Israel-Palestine, Chinese EV battery plants in Morocco & Turkiye, Potential Iranian FM comments on China

I’m coming very late to this today. It was convocation at my university and classes start tomorrow, so most of my workday was dedicated to the new semester.

Iran seeks China’s help with surveillance satellites, officials say -The Washington Post.

Iran is pursuing partnerships with two Chinese satellite companies, Western security officials say, as it seeks to expand its capability for remote surveillance and intelligence gathering, potentially including high-resolution images of military targets in Israel and across the Middle East…

Iran’s courtship of the two companies is being watched closely amid concerns that any deal that emerges could allow Iran to dramatically improve its ability to spy on U.S. and Israeli military installations as well as those of Arab rivals in the Persian Gulf, said the officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive intelligence. The two companies offer a line of satellites with optical equipment that is at least twice as sensitive as the most advanced satellites operated by Iran…

While there were no reports of a formal agreement yet, the assessment described a flourishing relationship between Tehran and one of the companies, Chang Guang Satellite Technology Co., with several exchanges of delegations and long stays by IRGC operatives and officials in China. Chang Guang, based in Changchun in China’s northeastern Jilin province, makes small, low-cost “cubesat” satellites with optical equipment still capable of producing images with a resolution as fine as 30 centimeters, a capability comparable with that of the most sophisticated U.S. and European commercial satellite companies. Iran’s Khayyam satellite produces images with a resolution of about 1 meter.

Iranian officials also were seeking a business arrangement with the Beijing-based MinoSpace Technology Co., which makes the Taijing-series remote sensing satellites, and participated in an exchange of delegations with it, the assessment said.

If true, this would seriously undermine China’s interests in the Middle East. I’ve said and written this countless times, but in material terms China gets much more from working with the Saudis and Emiratis than it does from Iran. If these companies supplied Iran with the technological means to undermine Saudi, Emirati, and/or Israeli security, the costs for Beijing would be significant. I have to think this is a story about two Chinese companies that are chasing contracts and are about to get reigned in by the Party.

China’s post-Gaza war ambitions will have to include Israel eventually: experts - South China Morning Post. Good overview of the tensions in the China-Israel relationship from Zhao Ziwen, who has been filing lots of good work on China-Middle East for the SCMP. Lots of comments from friends and folks whose work I admire in here, but sharing a couple of snippets from Fan Hongda, who is one of China’s top Iran experts and has also spent significant time in Israel.

According to Fan Hongda, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University's Middle East Studies Institute, the souring of China-Israel relations began earlier, when Tel Aviv found itself caught up in the growing rivalry between Beijing and Washington.

"Frankly speaking, China-Israel's 'honeymoon phase' has long gone," he said, adding that the distrust would last beyond the war, with "no favourable conditions in sight for a significant warmth".

According to Fan, China's ambition to expand its influence and become an alternative to the US in the Middle East makes it inevitable that Beijing will eventually extend an olive branch to Tel Aviv.

"If China wishes to contribute to the resolution of the Palestinian issue, it must cooperate with Israel. Without Israel's endorsement, any effort to resolve the Palestinian issue would be futile," Fan said.

EV Battery: Morocco attracts new Chinese mega-project, whetting investors’ appetite - The North Africa Post. More on Morocco as a Chinese EV hub, this time with battery manufacturing:

Morocco’s electric vehicle battery ecosystem is gaining momentum with the announcement of a new $363.5 million investment to be injected by China’s BTR New Material Group in its second plant to be built in Mohammed VI Tangier Tech City.

In its latest press release, the Shenzhen-based firm said its 2nd factory in Morocco will produce annually 60,000 tons of anode materials for Li-ion batteries to power electric vehicles, becoming more and more popular.

Chinese lithium supplier Ganfeng to set up $500 mn battery plant in Turkey - Emerging Technology News. Same with Turkiye. Interesting to see Chinese EV momentum on either side of the EU. Not a coincidence.

Ganfeng, one of the leading global supplier of lithium metal, is in the process of setting up a joint venture in Turkey, with an investment plan for about $500 million towards a lithium battery project with an annual capacity of 5 GWh…

The joint venture project reportedly includes the establishment of two key facilities - a lithium battery cell production line and a battery pack production line. The JV is also said to involve establishing R&D centers for new technology development in the areas of solid-state batteries, high-power batteries, marine and aerospace batteries. 

Duqm Materials Market opens at China-Oman Industrial City - Oman Daily Observer. Interesting to see that the third project in this industrial park has gone live - the initial goal was to have 30% of the 1172-hectare project done by 2022, but COVID and an ailing Omani economy combined to significantly slow down China’s Duqm ambitions. A good reminder to not read too much into MoUs; back in 2017 all the stories were about China’s $10.5 billion worth of projects in Duqm. Seven years later there are three completed projects and a lot of those Chinese companies have relocated to Dubai. Still, this is positive momentum:

Duqm Materials Market activities include selling all types of building materials, electrical appliances, and luxury items, in addition to displaying Chinese cars. It is equipped with several manufacturing workshops, which allows companies to manufacture their products in the market…

Duqm Materials Market includes a main exhibition hall with an area of ​​16, 000 sqm, a secondary exhibition with an area of ​​2,500 sqm, in addition to four warehouses with an area of ​​1,200 sqm, and six workshops with a total area of ​​6,700 sqm.

Iranian president's FM pick says China, Russia among foreign policy priorities - Xinhua. Of course they are, and of course he said that.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian's nominee for foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, outlined key foreign policy priorities of the new administration on Sunday, emphasizing the importance of China and Russia…

He highlighted that China, Russia, and nations that have supported Iran through sanctions, as well as emerging powers in Africa, Latin America, and East Asia, will be central to the administration's foreign policy.

Chinese Iran experts will remember, however, how quickly Iran dropped China like a hot potato after signing the JCPoA as it pursued closer ties to Europe. They will also remember how quickly Iran pivoted back to China after the US pulled out of the JCPoA. They will likely read Araghchi’s comments cynically, knowing that there are few other countries Iran can legitimately prioritize in its foreign policy these days. And they will probably recognize that right now Tehran has very little leverage, so great bargains to be had if you’re shopping in Iran.