From Dialogues to Deals: Egypt’s Calculated Dance with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

Also: WSJ on China's decreasing energy imports, China-Russia-Iran meeting in Tehran, SCZone investment tour in China, Saudi competing in renewables

SCO partnership supports Egypt’s modernization, regional stability: Chinese ambassador - Daily News Egypt. The PRC embassy in Cairo held a Shanghai Cooperation Organization themed conference on Sunday, adding another layer to the recent surge in Sino-Egypt ties.

Egypt became a dialogue partner of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2022, a status shared with 14 other countries: Sri Lanka, Turkey, Cambodia, Azerbaijan, Nepal, Armenia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Maldives, Myanmar, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain.

This article has the ambassador claiming it means Egypt can “participate in all related dialogues and initiatives.” The deepest work on the SCO I’ve read - Eva Seiwert’s PhD dissertation - she’s recently published a book on SCO that I haven’t read yet but hope to soon - has dialogue partners applying to participate in meetings on specific issues that the partner country has targeted as relevant to their interests. I think - the dissertation is in my office in Abu Dhabi so I might be misremembering that, but I don’t think I am. So “all related dialogues and initiatives” would mean certain issues that Cairo thinks the SCO addresses and the SCO thinks Cairo adds value to their mission. In reality, I think the SCO is less rigorous in applying its standards of admission.

There is a lot of speculation of deepening security/strategic relations between Beijing and Cairo, and SCO would seemingly fit into this narrative, but at this point it needs to be pointed out that SCO’s security cooperation structures remain quite limited.

After a really useful beginning as a means of addressing post-Soviet border disputes, the then-Shanghai Five expanded and security concerns - especially the so-called ‘Three Evils” of terrorism, separatism, and extremism - animated a lot of cooperation. As an intelligence sharing organization it’s quite effective, with its Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) playing a big role. Beyond that, institutional security cooperation has been limited to joint military exercises among some members.

That India and Pakistan are full members certainly limits denser security coordination. And Russia’s war in Ukraine also raised the costs of military cooperation between states - few SCO members are willing to be associated with that.

So at this point any assumptions about what Egypt’s participation in SCO means in security terms are most likely over-stated. At the same time, it’s yet another step closer to denser ties with China.

This piece from Global Times has the director of Egypt Council on Foreign Relations Ezzat Saad describing SCO cooperation in very general terms: "We believe that the SCO is an important platform for promoting the development of Egypt-China relations. Egypt looks forward to further deepening political and economic cooperation among the countries of the Global South based on the initiatives proposed by China."

The Chinese Embassy in Cairo hosted a seminar on Sunday under the theme “Development and Impact of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): Upholding the Spirit of Shanghai Cooperation and Advancing China-Egypt Relations with Steady Steps.”

Chinese Ambassador to Cairo Liao Liqiang spoke about the SCO’s evolution and its growing relevance for Egypt, emphasising China’s commitment to strengthening cooperation between the organization and the Egyptian government.

How China Curbed Its Oil Addiction—and Blunted a U.S. Pressure Point - Wall Street Journal. This is a very relevant and interesting article from WSJ on China’s growing domestic energy production and decreasing imports, which obviously has implications for MENA.

China’s biggest state oil companies and the International Energy Agency all forecast that China’s demand for oil will likely peak within two years, while gasoline and diesel demand has already topped out.

China won’t stop importing oil. It still brings in roughly 11 million barrels a day, about 70% of what it consumes, up from less than three million a day 20 years ago. And overall oil consumption is likely to decline only gradually as China’s demand for oil to make petrochemicals continues to grow.

Nevertheless, Xi’s campaign will have ramifications for global energy markets, with billions of dollars of Chinese oil imports projected to vanish in coming years. In June, the IEA, a Paris-based organization that tracks global oil consumption, slashed its forecast for Chinese demand in the 2028-30 period by more than one million barrels a day from its year-earlier prediction.

Beijing was leery of relying too much on Middle Eastern oil, which had entangled the U.S. in that region’s conflicts for decades. Xi also was facing domestic discontent over choking smog, attributable in part to the surging numbers of cars on China’s roads.

During the first Trump administration, as relations between the two nations deteriorated, Chinese government strategists grew concerned about the nation’s reliance on the Strait of Malacca. Most of the ships importing oil and gas to China go through that narrow passage near Singapore, leaving them susceptible to intercept by the U.S. Navy in the event of a conflict.

U.S. Deputy Secretary of Commerce Paul Dabbar has estimated that if China lost access to all seaborne oil-and-gas imports, its economy could shrink by as much as 17%.

Iran to host Russia, China for nuclear talks to counter snapback threat - Iran International. Trilateral talks were held between Iran, Russia and China in Tehran yesterday to discuss E3 (France, Germany, UK) warnings that they will trigger the snapback unless Iran returns to “substantive nuclear negotiations” by the end of August. Iran will be meeting with the E3 in Istanbul on Friday.

Iran will host a high-level meeting with Russian and Chinese officials in Tehran on Tuesday, part of a diplomatic effort to shield the country from the threat of reimposed UN sanctions under the 2015 nuclear deal’s snapback mechanism.

“We are in constant consultation with these two countries to prevent activation of the snapback or to mitigate its consequences,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said at a weekly press briefing on Monday. “We have aligned positions and good relations.”

The trilateral talks, which will take place at director-general level, are aimed at coordinating a response to growing pressure from the West over Iran’s nuclear program, Baghaei said.

Tehran has long portrayed Russia and China as reliable allies, citing their support in trade, defense, and diplomatic arenas.

From Gao Jiakun’s MoFA press conference earlier today:

AFP: Iran held a trilateral meeting with China and Russia on Tuesday to discuss the issue of Iran’s nuclear program. So what specific content was discussed at the meeting and what is China’s position on that?

Guo Jiakun: China always calls for a peaceful settlement of the Iranian nuclear issue through political and diplomatic means and maintains communication and coordination with relevant parties. We will continue to play a constructive role and work for the resumption of dialogue and negotiation among relevant parties and a solution that accommodates the legitimate concerns of all parties. 

Egypt’s SCZone begins investment roadshow in China, eyes EVs, logistics - State Information Service Egypt. More China-Egypt, with a SCZone investment promotion trip to China:

Egypt’s Suez Canal Economic Zone (SCZone) launched its first international investment promotion tour for fiscal year 2025/26 with a visit to China, targeting key sectors including electric vehicles (EVs), textiles, and logistics, the authority said Monday.

Leading the delegation, SCZone Chairman Waleid Gamal El-Dien met with senior officials from major Chinese firms such as Crystal International Group, electric vehicle giant BYD, Hutchison Ports, and authorities from the Qianhai Special Economic Zone and Yantian International Container Terminals in Shenzhen.

The tour aims to attract foreign direct investment to Egypt’s strategic economic zone, which boasts access to Red Sea and Mediterranean ports, preferential trade agreements, and integrated industrial infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia outpaces China and India in renewable energy project costs, says energy minister - Saudi Gazette.

Saudi Arabia is now implementing renewable energy projects at costs even lower than China and India, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said, emphasizing the Kingdom’s global leadership in green hydrogen, battery technologies, and clean energy.

“Saudi Arabia has become cheaper than China and India,” the minister said during the International Workshop on Renewable Energy and Green Hydrogen Exports held in Riyadh on Sunday. “As I always say: catch up with us if you can.”

The minister highlighted the signing of renewable energy projects with a combined capacity of 15 gigawatts last week, with prices among the most competitive globally.

He said the Kingdom is executing these projects at exceptionally low costs across both wind and solar power sectors.

Prince Abdulaziz also confirmed that Saudi Arabia is already exporting green hydrogen and that the country is working on battery projects with a combined capacity of 48 gigawatts.

He noted that Saudi Arabia is simultaneously advancing carbon capture initiatives, including pipelines and related infrastructure.

In addition to its renewable energy push, the Kingdom is undergoing an unprecedented expansion in gas production and is enhancing its fleet of power generation units with the most efficient systems available globally.