Iran announces new Ayatollah, speculation about Chinese rocket fuel being shipped to Iran, Zhai Jun and China's limited MENA diplomacy
The announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new Ayatollah is expected and troubling. I don’t follow Iranian domestic politics closely, but the clock had been running out for his father for years and there’d been a lot of speculation about his potential successor. The deceased President Raisi was seen as the safe bet; Mojtaba was the long shot. The Islamic Republic of Iran was established after a monarchy was toppled and hereditary leadership was a little too close to the ancien regime. Now we’re dealing with a hard-liner true-believer who, at 56 years old presumably has decades to extend his father’s brutal legacy. And his father, mother, wife and son were just killed, so there is no chance that he’ll represent reform in the regime. More likely he’s going to crack down harder and lash out more. Until Israel kills him too.
If this war hadn’t started, we may have ended up in the same place, with an eventual father-to-son transition. But it’s hard to not play out the “what-ifs” here. What if the U.S. and Israel didn’t start this war, and the 86 year old Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died of natural causes, as many thought was coming soon? After the horrifying massacre in January, would Khamenei the younger have been the clear choice as successor? I imagine there would have been mass demonstrations after the Ayatollah’s natural demise, and the regime would have responded with more brutality, but how long could it have held out? It’s a legitimate question - there have been signs of regime exhaustion, and smart analysts who know much more about Iran than I were talking and writing about transition/collapse scenarios before this war started. And now I fear the IRI is re-motivated. This could be academic if the war results in regime collapse, but if Trump decides to pull out and call it a win, the Iranian people will be paying the price.
The “Who is Mojtaba Khamenei” factory is churning out of a lot of product today. I put this post out in January, and once again recommend the list of Iran experts that you should follow. I know they are exhausted, angry, sad, and doing a tremendous amount of work, analysis, TV and media spots, all while tracking events and trying to support family and friends and colleagues, and I have tremendous respect for their commitment to sharing their expertise during trying times.
Iran Signals a Fight to the End With Appointment of Khamenei’s Son - Wall Street Journal.
The younger Khamenei’s ascendance “suggests the continuation of the same old strategy: repression at home and resistance internationally,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House.
The Revolutionary Guard and Iranian army pledged allegiance to the new leader. Following his appointment, Iran launched a wave of missiles toward Israel, state media said.
In addition to his father being killed at the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli campaign, the new leader has also lost his mother, wife and a son in the strikes…
The younger Khamenei has mostly kept away from the public eye, and his political views aren’t well-known.
But he is closely tied to the Revolutionary Guard, where he served, mostly in noncombat roles, during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war. The Guards have played a central role in repressing domestic opposition to the regime.
Khamenei’s ascendance also marks the first hereditary transfer of the position of supreme leader—something the founders of the Islamic Republic denounced when they overthrew the monarchy in 1979. Ali Khamenei and his predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, thought passing on power to one’s child was un-Islamic.
And now back to your China-Middle East content.
The Washington Post published this story yesterday, speculating that China (the government? smugglers?) loaded two Iranian ships with cargo from Gaolan port, which is known as a hub for shipping chemicals. Last year there were two cases of Iran importing sodium perchlorate, which is used in rocket fuels, from China. These ships are destined for Bandar Abbas, as the previous ones were and where there was a huge explosion last April. The assumption is that the ship is loaded with sodium perchlorate that Iran will use to shore up its missile stocks, which I can only hope have been significantly depleted after 10 days of launching them in my general direction.
I have lots of thoughts about this. First, this would make no sense for the PRC government to support this. Supplying Iran with missile fuel while Iran is launching missiles at China’s most important economic partners in the Middle East, countries that supply it with 40-50% of its crude imports, countries with something like half a million PRC expatriates, would be dumb. Then you factor in the chances of U.S. personnel or bases being hit by missiles that got fuel from China after the war started, and that would dramatically alter the China-U.S. relationship, which I feel I have to say yet again, is far more important to Beijing than its relationship with Iran. Trump and Xi are supposed to meet next month. Foreign Minister Wang Yi gave a press conference yesterday from the Two Sessions, and was quoted as expecting a “big year for China-US relations” and that “the agenda of high-level exchanges is already on the table”. Managing the relationship with Washington is a top level foreign policy priority for Beijing. Tehran is way down the list.
So I’m skeptical. But even if Beijing is turning a blind eye towards smugglers making dodgy money, the ship is expected to arrive in Bandar Abbas on Sunday, and there’s a good chance that Bandar Abbas is not going to be in any shape to unload cargo by then.
Laden Iranian ships depart Chinese port tied to key military chemicals - Washington Post.
Two ships owned by an Iranian company that the United States has accused of supplying material to Tehran’s ballistic missile program departed a Chinese chemical-storage port this week laden with cargo and headed for Iran, according to a Washington Post analysis of ship-tracking data, satellite imagery and Treasury Department records.
The vessels are part of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), a state-owned company under U.S., British and European Union sanctions that has been described by the U.S. State Department as the “preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators and procurement agents.”
How will the Iran turmoil affect China and its Middle East ties? Pan Guang weighs in - South China Morning Post. This is a very good interview with Pan Guang, who is a Chinese Middle East expert with decades of experience. Definitely worth your time. I like the point he makes here about the war between Pakistan and Afghanistan being more consequential for China’s long-term interests. I was starting a post on this war the morning the U.S. and Israel started to bomb Iran, and I’ve given if very little thought since then.
Amid recent events in Iran, how do you assess the impact on China? Will China’s “petroyuan” settlement encounter problems, and what of the risks to the Belt and Road Initiative’s infrastructure assets?
Overall, the strikes on Iran do have some impact on China, but the impact is limited. There will be no changes regarding oil trade settlement in yuan. On the contrary, it could be increasingly favourable to China. There is little the US can do about this. Countries need to spend money to buy goods, and there is no way to prevent that.
As for belt and road risks, the greater concern lies with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Pakistan and Afghanistan are in serious conflict, and that is what worries me most. As for Iran, once the fighting ends, it ends; there will not be much impact. The US will not occupy Iran.
There will be no impact on the port of Haifa in Israel, the refinery in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, or the metro project in Tel Aviv.
The key belt and road issue concerns China’s relations with Pakistan and Afghanistan, and it has little to do with Iran.
Finally, Zhai Jun is in the region, talking to everyone presumably, and inspiring analysis of Chinese mediation in the war. Frankly, I’m very skeptical that there is any room for meaningful Chinese mediation at this point. There is nothing that Beijing can offer Iran to change its course, and the U.S. and Israel aren’t interested in diplomatic solutions. He may get points for showing up, but I suspect it will really just reinforce the reality that China has limited ability to turn its economic power into diplomatic power in this part of the world.
Saudi FM discusses latest regional situation with Chinese special envoy - Saudi Gazetter.
Saudi Minister of Foreign Affairs Prince Faisal bin Farhan held talks with Chinese government’s special envoy to the Middle East Zhai Jun at the ministry’s headquarters in Riyadh on Sunday.
During the meeting, they discussed the latest regional and international developments and their repercussions on the region. They also reviewed the efforts being exerted to strengthen stability and security in the region.The meeting was attended by the Undersecretary of the Ministry for Political Affairs Ambassador Saud Al-Sati.
Last Thursday, Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said at a daily press briefing that China will send Zhai Jun, as special envoy of the Chinese government on the Middle East issue, to the region in the near future to work for the de-escalation of the tense situation.
The spokesperson added that China will continue working with all sides, including those involved in conflicts in the Middle East, to maintain communication and step up mediation efforts to end the conflict.
China foreign minister blasts Middle East war, urges US to manage ties - Arab News.
China’s top diplomat condemned on Sunday the war in the Middle East and urged the United States to iron out its differences with Beijing.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi told a press conference in the Chinese capital that the war, which was sparked by US and Israeli strikes on Iran, “should never have happened.”
“A strong fist does not mean strong reason. The world cannot return to the law of the jungle,” he told reporters.
He was speaking during China’s annual political gathering, which began this week, known as the “Two Sessions.”
Any future settlement with Iran must address missile programme, UAE official says - The National. The security architecture of the Gulf will look different when all of this is over.
While the US-Israeli war on Iran and the ensuring Iranian attacks on the Gulf continue, Gulf countries are working not only to end the war, but also thinking what the future security of the region will look like. What is clear is that any future agreement with Iran will no longer focus solely on the nuclear issue but must also address Tehran’s missile programme.
From an unidentified Emirati official:
“Any new negotiated settlement with Iran will no longer be confined to the nuclear aspect. Missiles are now centre stage, because missiles now are not seen as self-defence,” said the official.