Is North Africa the New Gulf?
I wasn’t going to post today but I noticed a common theme while reading this morning and thought I’d put a quick one together.
Before I do, I have finally sorted out the ongoing payment issue (I hope), and have returned to the paid subscription model. There will be occasional free posts and content, but the majority will be behind the paywall. I’ve reduced the price by half since a lot of subscribers are students who found it hard to justify $120, so an annual subscription is $60 now. I think that’s more than reasonable given the amount of time that goes into this.
So, in my browsing this morning there was a lot of stories about energy, and a few about North Africa, and there’s a link I wanted to explore a bit. A lot of what China does in the Middle East - North Africa is really China in the Gulf. This subregion of MENA is where you’ll find the majority of China’s trade, contracting, energy deals, expatriate population, and small-medium businesses.
But there has been more action in North Africa over the past two years, and I think it’s worth exploring. I took a cut at it with this Atlantic Council piece from 2024, and again with this one on China-Egypt ties. The European Council on Foreign Relations report on Chinese EVs that I shared two weeks ago started with me noticing an unusual surge in Chinese investments into Morocco, a trend that kicked off in 2024.
And these articles I’m sharing today indicate a Chinese re-evaluation of its energy relationships in the Gulf as well as more projects and linkages with North Africa. It’s early to read too much into the long term impacts of this war on China’s MENA policy, but a deeper footprint in North Africa is something I’ll be watching for.
And also, I’ve already shared this article from Zhang Chuchu but it’s relevant to this post, so I’ll share it again: How Iran War Is Reshaping China’s Geo-Economic Cooperation with North Africa, for Stimson Center.
How China Built Its Vast Natural Gas Stockpile - New York Times.
Two rows of storage tanks the height of 20-story buildings, filled with liquefied gas, help explain why China is better prepared than many countries to endure the interruption of gas supplies from the Middle East.
Each of six tanks in Yancheng, an industrial port, holds enough natural gas to meet the household needs of Beijing’s 22 million people for more than two months. Adjacent to them are four more tanks that are only slightly smaller.
The storage tanks are part of a huge effort by China over the past decade to accumulate stockpiles of all kinds of commodities, from pork and rice to rare-earth metals and coal, in case of a disruption of overseas supplies. But the natural gas stockpiles — the world’s largest above ground are in Yancheng, with more giant storage tanks in southern China — are conspicuously important now. They have helped China cushion the supply shock caused by the war in the Middle East even as its Asian neighbors, including India, Pakistan and Vietnam, are running low on natural gas.
China’s LNG Demand Won’t Bounce Back From Mideast Turmoil - Bloomberg.
Chinese LNG imports plunged 11% last year to 68.4 million tons, a rare decline in nearly two decades of almost uninterrupted growth. BloombergNEF expects another drop in 2026 to 62.3 million tons. Rystad Energy predicts a slight rise to 70 million tons.
Even before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran shattered the supply chain from the Persian Gulf, Chinese demand for gas was falling as the economy slowed. Apparent consumption declined 0.9% in the first two months of the year, according to government figures, extending the weak run that had persisted through 2025….
Faced with such a shortfall, China is all but certain to limit its exposure to the Persian Gulf. Given Qatar’s heft in the market, that could also mean cutting back on LNG, and leaning more heavily on domestic output and overland gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia. Substitutes such as coal and renewables, which China has in abundance, are also likely to be favored…
In the meantime, China has initiated contingency measures across the economy. Industries reliant on oil and gas imports have scaled back operations. Coastal power plants are limiting gas usage. And importers are capping retail prices, putting pricier LNG at a bigger disadvantage.
China’s Xi urges faster development of new energy system as Middle East war continues - Reuters.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for accelerated planning and construction of a new energy system to safeguard the country’s energy security, weeks into the Iran war that has triggered global energy shocks.
The leader of the world’s second-largest economy also emphasised hydropower development and ecological protection, while urging the safe and orderly expansion of nuclear power, according to state broadcaster CCTV on Monday.
New China Qingdao Port to Libya route, avoiding Hormuz Straight, to reduce shipping time by up to ten days: Julyana Free Port - Libya Herald.
China has announced the launch of a new maritime shipping route from Qingdao Port, connecting it to Egypt and Libya via Port Said, then Benghazi and Misrata, offering a strategic alternative to the Strait of Hormuz…
This new route reducing shipping time by approximately ten days, reflects the importance of trade cooperation between Libya and other countries, Julyana Free Port asserted. The Free Port predicts that by 2030, Libya is expected to become Africa’s gateway to Europe, particularly with the development of the Transit Trade Corridor linking Ajdabiya and Kufra to Sirte and Chad, a strategic axis connecting the two continents.
Libya announces new oil, gas discovery - Xinhua.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation (NOC) on Wednesday announced a new oil and gas discovery in the Ghadames Basin, southwest of the country.
In a statement, the NOC said that drilling operations reached a final depth of 8,440 feet, with production rates estimated at around 13 million cubic feet of gas per day, in addition to 327 barrels per day of condensate, from the Ouinat Wanin and Ouinat Kaza formations.
The Ghadames Basin is located in a border region shared by Libya, Algeria and Tunisia, about 600 to 620 km southwest of Tripoli.
It is considered one of the most significant hydrocarbon basins in North Africa, due to its substantial oil and gas reserves.
Oil and gas exports are Libya’s main source of revenue, but production has been repeatedly disrupted in recent years due to conflict and political instability.
GuofuHee signs US$6.2 million Morocco hydrogen deal - Green Building Africa.
China based Jiangsu GuofuHee Energy Equipment Co. Ltd. has secured its first commercial hydrogen contract in Morocco, marking a further step in the country’s accelerating green hydrogen ambitions. The agreement, signed on 6 April 2026, will see the company supply a 20 MW hydrogen production system to GF Hydrogen Africa Sarl, an affiliated associate.
The deal, valued at approximately US$6.2 million, is designed as a large-scale demonstration project to stimulate the development of green hydrogen supply for domestic customers. It also reinforces Morocco’s growing role as a strategic entry point for hydrogen investment into Africa.