Israel attacks Iran: What should we expect from Beijing?
It’s mostly been a quiet week for me as I’m getting ready to leave the UAE for the summer. I gave a talk yesterday and someone asked about how I see China responding to “everything that’s happened over the past 24 hours” and I had no idea what they were referring to - I’d had very little media intake. I was brought up to speed on the US pulling non-essential staff from regional embassies, and what it means for the nuclear talks, and if this was a transparent “art of the deal” move or if we could expect TACO.
When I woke up and checked my phone this morning, I had this text from a friend:
And I’ve been online for most of the last four hours, reading about this morning’s dramatic Israeli attack on Iran.
My friend was right. I don’t expect to see a meaningful response from China in the short term. Forgive the obvious statement, but the Middle East has become a different region since October 7 2023. The perception of Iranian military superiority has been shattered along with its deterrence, the Axis of Resistance has been significantly diminished, it lost Syria, it lost its President and Foreign Minister in a helicopter accident.
I suspect Chinese leaders see a very vulnerable partner in a region where the order is undergoing a dramatic transition. There are so many variables to consider that I wouldn’t expect Beijing to do much beyond express support for Iran, condemn Israel, blame the US, and express hope that regional actors solve this regional problem.
So much of China’s narrative to the people and governments of the Middle East has been centered on “peace through development”, the idea that stability is the result of improved living standards. There are dozens of speeches, interviews, and policy documents where Xi Jinping, Wang Yi, special envoys and ambassadors emphasize this, pointing to China’s own transition from poor and underdeveloped country to the second biggest economy in the world in a 40-year span. Here’s an example from a speech Xi gave in 2016: “The key to overcoming difficulties is to accelerate development. Turmoil in the Middle East stems from the lack of development, and the ultimate solution will depend on development, which bears on everyone’s well-being and dignity.”
Of course, MENA governments want to learn from this experience, and every government in the region is happy when a rich and powerful country talks about development.
But it’s become painfully clear that this narrative is inadequate in the Middle East. Some of the political problems are not just the result of under-development, and economic solutions aren’t going to work.
China’s political and diplomatic influence in the region are modest. It has none in Israel. It has under-delivered for Iran time and again.
Adjust your expectations accordingly.
China cautions citizens in Iran, warns those in Israel of potential attacks - Al Arabia. I’m not sure how many PRC nationals live in either country. I’ve never heard any figure for Israel, and was given ‘less than 10,000’ as an estimate for Iran when I asked a Chinese expert on Iran in 2022. Google’s unwelcome AI feature puts it between 2,000-3,000.
China has issued advisories to its citizens in Israel and Iran about the “complex and severe” security situation in those countries on Friday, adding a warning to those in Israel to prepare for possible missile and drone attacks.
The Chinese embassy in Israel told citizens there to strengthen their security precautions, avoid going out unnecessarily or to areas surrounding military units and sensitive institutions, as the “security situation on the ground is complex and severe.”
“Stay calm, be vigilant,” a notice on its WeChat account said, cautioning citizens to be prepared to guard against missiles, rockets, drones and other attacks.
In a separate notice, the Chinese embassy in Iran also advised citizens and enterprises based there to pay close attention to developments and enhance their security awareness and precautions, asking citizens to avoid sensitive sites and crowded places.
Israel on Friday said it targeted Iran’s nuclear facilities, ballistic missile factories and military commanders at the start of what it warned would be a prolonged operation to prevent Tehran from building an atomic weapon.
Chinese citizens in Iran, Israel need to prepare for attacks, embassies warn - South China Morning Post.
The Chinese embassy in Israel warned its citizens on Friday morning to take safety precautions for potential attacks as Tehran considers a retaliation against Israeli strikes targeting its nuclear sites.
The Israeli strikes were “significantly escalating the tensions” in the Middle East, the embassy said in a statement that urged Chinese citizens in Israel to closely monitor the evolving situation, remain calm, and stay vigilant.
“Citizens are advised to prepare for potential attacks involving missiles, rockets, drones, or other threats, and to take comprehensive safety measures,” the embassy said.
A senior Iranian security official told Reuters that Iran’s retaliation was being discussed at the highest level, and that Tehran was planning to give a “harsh and decisive” response.
The Chinese embassy in Tehran called Iran’s latest security situation “severe and complicated” following Israel’s military strikes early on Friday, while also warning its citizens and businesses to monitor the situation and take precautions.
“The … embassy in Iran reminds Chinese citizens and businesses in the country to closely monitor the situation, enhance their safety awareness, and strengthen security measures,” it said in a statement.
Israel launches preemptive strike on Iran, killing IRGC's top commander - Xinhua. Very matter-of-fact coverage from Xinhua, no editorializing here.
And no surprise here, from NYTimes ongoing coverage:
Finally, this was going to be my lead today. Not so important anymore, but still:
Chinese Ambassador to Tehran Zhong Peiwu met with Irans Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi - Islamic Republic of Iran’s MOFA. I was suprised reading this that Pezeshkian was planning a trip to China; there have been stories for nearly two months that his trip was soon. I suspect it’s on the back burner again now.
On the eve of the Iranian president’s important visit to China, Chinese Ambassador to Tehran Zhong Peiwu met on Monday with Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi for talks over the latest developments in bilateral relations within the framework of the two countries’ cooperation agreement and also over key regional and international cooperation issues between Tehran and Beijing.