My latest column for AGBI, Iranian defence minister at SCO meeting in Qingdao, Wang Yi continues to work the phones, PRC MoFA spokesman on Middle East security
What China’s response to the Iran-Israel conflict says about its Gulf strategy - me, for AGBI. I wrote this at a cafe in Brussels last Tuesday, rushing to get it out while the conflict was still unfolding, but my editor was on holidays and so was her replacement, and it got held up. Thankfully, events didn’t undermine the analysis.
I see a lot of pieces coming out this week about China's influence in the Middle East collapsing, China being sidelined, China's low profile and cautious approach, China's regional strategy undermined.... ug.
I disagree with most of this. China's partnership with Iran is not the main pillar in its approach to the Middle East. Its economic interests are the main pillar, and those aren't tied exclusively to any one state. It does a lot of business with the Saudis, Emiratis, Iraqis, Egyptians, and Moroccans. The business is the point, not the country. And Iran has not represented much in the way of business for China, despite Beijing's appetite for discounted oil.
Looking at this from an interest-based perspective rather than a state-based one, you'll see a pretty consistent approach to MENA from China. Conflict or instability can affect those interests, but regimes matter less than they are portrayed in the media.
As for China's response to the Israel-Iran conflict, it was consistent with its economics-first interests. It is not a military power in the Middle East, it has no influence in Israel, and had little to offer Iran in material terms. There's no reason to expect a significant role in a crisis where the outcome could really only be influenced by the US and Israel. Calls for a ceasefire or diplomatic resolution are the limits of what I expected.
My conclusion:
as long as its primary trade, contracting and energy priorities on the Arabian Peninsula remain safe, we can expect to see a consistent approach to the region, where China remains a significant commercial actor with a shallow diplomatic and security footprint.
To paraphrase Lord Palmerston, in the Gulf, China does not have permanent friends or enemies, just permanent interests. It has managed to achieve these interests at a relatively low cost so far, and that is not likely to change in the near term.
My writing desk until mid-August.
SCO Defense Ministers' Meeting held in China's Qingdao - Global Times. The SCO defense meeting was held yesterday and today, with defense ministers from all members in attendance. Probably the most interesting real outcome was India’s refusal to sign the joint communique because it “would have weakened India’s position on terrorism and regional security” in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist attack. It’s also noteworthy that this was the first visit to China from an Indian defence minister since the 2020 Galwan Valley clash. Full membership for India in the SCO was such a strange decision, diluting so much of what China wants from the organization. I get the logic of ‘China gets Pakistan, Russia gets India,’ but a sounder choice would have been to keep both at the margins of influence in the SCO as observer states.
That said, the story was Iran’s defense minister making his first foreign trip after the outbreak of the Israeli attack, and being in the meeting with his Chinese and Russian counterparts. I suspect his inner dialogue wasn’t consistent with this:
Iranian Defense Minister Aziz Nasirzadeh said that Iran recently came under attack and expressed gratitude to China for its understanding and support of Iran's legitimate stance. He hopes that China will continue to uphold justice and play an even greater role in maintaining the current ceasefire and easing regional tensions.
The limits of the China-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership have been clear for years now, and I’ve written endlessly about this. Whatever value the Russia-Iran comprehensive strategic partnership that was signed months ago must be diminished in the eyes of Iranian officials.
I’ve mentioned before that I’m currently working on a project that looks at the China-Russia-Iran-North Korea (CRINKs) grouping, and events constantly make it the equivalent of hitting a moving target while riding a wild horse, but the one takeaway for me so far is how thin this is, beyond rhetorical posturing. China’s defense minister Dong Jun dusted off the usual talking points: ““Unilateralism and protectionism are surging, while hegemonic, high-handed, and bullying acts severely undermine the international order, making these practices the biggest sources of chaos and harm.”
But in real terms, there is little holding this together, and I suspect leaders in China watched Russia and Iran lose Syria, and Iran lose its deterrence capacity, and Russia’s performance in Ukraine, and thought “worst alignment ever.”
Wang Yi Has a Phone Call with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi - PRC MoFA.
On June 24, 2025, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi.
Seyed Abbas Araghchi briefed Wang Yi on the latest developments in the regional situation, emphasizing that the dangerous actions by Israel and the United States in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities seriously violate international law, leaving Iran with no choice but to respond. Although a ceasefire has just been reached between Iran and Israel, the situation remains unstable. Genuine negotiations can only begin once Israel halts its aggression. The session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) has condemned the actions of the United States and Israel, and expects the Security Council to play a role in this matter. He appreciated China's understanding and support for Iran's legitimate position and expressed willingness to maintain close communication with China. Iran looks forward to China's greater role in easing the situation.
Wang Yi said that China has always been a builder of peace in the Middle East and a promoter of stability in the region. President Xi Jinping has put forward four proposals regarding the current situation, calling for an immediate ceasefire and an end of the hostilities, ensuring the safety of civilians, opening dialogue and negotiations, and advancing efforts for peace, which fully demonstrate China's principled position of standing up for fairness and upholding justice. After the U.S. attacked Iran, China immediately condemned the action. Military strikes on nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency severely violate the purposes of the United Nations (U.N.) Charter and international law, and may lead to nuclear leaks or even nuclear disasters, which should be opposed by the international community.
Wang Yi said, China supports Iran's efforts to safeguard national sovereignty and security, and on that basis, to achieve a real ceasefire, restore normal life for the people, and help deescalate the situation in the Middle East as soon as possible. China commends the OIC's unified voice for a ceasefire and an end of the hostilities, as well as the advancement of peace. China is ready to encourage the U.N. Security Council to play its due role and fulfill its primary responsibility of safeguarding international peace and security. Wang Yi appreciates the Iranian government's support in China's efforts to evacuate Chinese nationals in Iran, and hopes that Iran will continue to ensure the safety of Chinese institutions, personnel, and diplomatic missions.
Wang Yi Has a Phone Call with Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan - PRC MoFA.
On June 24, 2025, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Türkiye's Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan.
Wang Yi said, Israel and the United States have used force against Iran on the grounds of "potential future threats", which has seriously violated international law and infringed upon Iran's sovereignty. The U.S. airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency set a bad precedent and threaten the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. Peace needs to be defended with strength, but strength may not necessarily bring true peace. China opposes the use of force to settle disputes and always stands on the side of peace, dialogue, and international justice.
Wang Yi stated that President Xi Jinping has put forward four proposals regarding the situation in the Middle East, emphasizing that promoting a ceasefire and ending the hostilities is an urgent priority, ensuring the safety of civilians is of paramount importance, opening dialogue and negotiation is the fundamental way forward, and the efforts by the international community to promote peace are indispensable. China maintains communication with Iran, Israel, and relevant parties, and looks forward to achieving a real ceasefire and its practical and effective implementation. All parties should draw lessons from the past, restart dialogues on an equal footing, and bring the Iranian nuclear issue back onto the track of political settlement. The question of Palestine remains at the heart of the Middle East issue. It is necessary to promote the implementation of the two-State solution to ultimately achieve peaceful coexistence between Israel and Palestine. China supports Türkiye in hosting and convening the session of the Council of Foreign Ministers of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, urging all parties to send a unified voice opposing war, supporting peace, and calling for deescalation of conflicts. China expects Türkiye to continue playing a positive role in promoting regional peace and stability.
Hakan Fidan stated that since the outbreak of the conflict between Israel and Iran, Türkiye has been committed to promoting a ceasefire and an end of the hostilities, advocating for dialogue and negotiations. The current ceasefire agreement between the two sides brings some hope. The attacks on nuclear facilities under the safeguards of the International Atomic Energy Agency violate international law and may lead to catastrophic consequences such as nuclear leaks. If Israel wants to safeguard its security, it should accept the two-State solution and stop the humanitarian disaster in Gaza. Maintaining one's own security at the expense of other nations' security is unsustainable and may lead to more and wider conflicts. Noting China's crucial role, he said Türkiye is willing to enhance communication and coordination with China and jointly work towards achieving peace and stability in the Middle East.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun’s Regular Press Conference on June 25, 2025 - PRC MoFA. Some MENA relevant content from yesterday’s press briefing:
CCTV: Brazil, the BRICS Chair, released the BRICS Joint Statement on the Escalation of the Security Situation in the Middle East Following Military Strikes on the Territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran. What’s China’s comment?
Guo Jiakun: BRICS is a force for progress that champions global peace and stability and defends international fairness and justice. Following the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, BRICS released a joint statement calling for ceasefire, dialogue and consultation, which played a constructive role for deescalation in the region.
At last year’s BRICS Summit in Kazan, President Xi Jinping said BRICS should be “committed to peace” and “act as defenders of common security.” China stands ready to work with other BRICS countries to continue working for a peaceful and stable Middle East.
Rudaw Media Network: What is China’s position on the ceasefire between Israel and Iran? The second question is what role will China play with Iran to prevent the region from falling back into war?
Guo Jiakun: On your first question, China is following closely the developments in the Middle East. We hope to see a lasting and effective ceasefire and will work to promote peace and stability in the Middle East.
On your second question, China and Iran enjoy traditional friendship between our peoples. China stands ready to maintain the friendly cooperation with Iran for the benefit of the two peoples and provide positive factors for peace and stability in the Middle East.
Reuters: U.S. President Trump said yesterday that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran and that he also hoped China would buy plenty of it from the United States. The White House has clarified that there was no change or relaxation of U.S. sanctions. How should China interpret Trump’s comment? How much of Iranian crude oil is China importing?
Guo Jiakun: China will take energy supply measures that are right for China based on our national interests.
Finally, an interesting last Q&A from Guo Jiakan’s MoFA press briefing this morning:
NHK: Earlier this week, Ukrainian media reported that around 600 Chinese military personnel will be hosted at Russian bases in 2025 to study Russia’s combat experiences in Ukraine. Can you confirm whether such an arrangement between China and Russia exists?
Guo Jiakun: Regarding this, I have no information to share.