Present without impact? How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement
Late last year I was commissioned to write an essay for the Secretary of State’s Office of Net Assessment and Challenge (SONAC) in the UK’s Ministry of Defense. They wanted to know how the Middle East was responding to China’s increased diplomatic engagement. I’d mapped out a traditional essay on what China had been doing, its role in mediation, its messaging, the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum last May, multilateral and bilateral diplomatic mechanisms, its partnership diplomacy - all the stuff you would expect of a typical essay on diplomatic efforts. As I started writing, it occurred to me that if they wanted to know how the Middle East was responding, the best way to answer their question was to ask people directly from the Middle East. So I spent a big chunk of December and January on Zoom, talking with people from Egypt, Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Iran, asking all of them the same 6 questions:
How do you perceive China as a political actor in the Middle East?
Is it a diplomatically important or useful partner for (your country)?
Do you China's messaging and approach to Gaza has been effective in establishing Beijing as an honest broker?
Did China's response to the Red Sea shipping crisis affect your perception of China's influence in the Middle East?
Does China's partnership with Iran affect your thinking on China as a regional actor?
Do you think China will be a more or less important partner for (your country)/the Middle East in the next 5 years?
The result is this essay, “Present without impact? How the Middle East perceives China’s diplomatic engagement”. It was sent off to SONAC last month, and they have generously allowed me to publish it elsewhere, so it’s now available as an Issue Brief with Atlantic Council. I think it’s a useful snapshot of regional perceptions, and it was interesting to me how similar they were across countries. You can access the Issue Brief here, and here’s the abstract:
Since becoming a net energy importer in 1993, China has steadily expanded its presence in the Middle East, deepening ties through initiatives such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and partnerships with regional countries and organizations. Despite economic advancements and high-profile diplomatic engagements, China’s influence remains largely economic rather than political. Middle Eastern perceptions of China vary; it is seen as a cautious, transactional actor with limited capacity for addressing key regional conflicts and security concerns. While Iran views China as a crucial partner, Gulf states leverage their ties with Beijing to maintain strategic flexibility. Interviews with regional experts highlight skepticism regarding China’s willingness and ability to assume a more influential political role. Economic pragmatism drives ongoing partnerships, but China is not yet considered a key political or security player in the region. The study concludes that China’s regional role will likely remain focused on economic interests in the near term.