Unity agreement for Palestine announced in Beijing

The announcement that the 14 Palestinian factions attending talks in Beijing have come to a unity agreement will rightfully take up a lot of the news cycle in China-MENA, and while we can give kudos to Beijing for taking a big swing, I think the news deserves a healthy dose of skepticism. It’s not the first time we’ve seen Palestinian factions agree to work together - just 2 years ago there was a similar agreement worked out in Algeria, with Fatah official Azzam al-Ahmad proclaiming, “We are proud to stand in this moment, under the auspices of President Abdulmajeed Tabboune, … to sign this deal and get rid of this [political] split and cancer that has entered the Palestinian body.” That was clearly premature. The Gaza War might be a catalyst for Palestinian unity, but the process of trust-building required for political action is going to be challenging, and frankly, I don’t think anyone in Beijing has the diplomatic capital or local network to pull it off. Same for Russia, which was the other extra-regional actor involved in the meetings, along with Algeria and Egypt.

At the heart of it, I don’t see how Hamas will be a constructive part of this unity coalition, but I’ll leave it to people who know far more about Palestinian politics than me to address that. I’d have to think a lot of Palestinian people have tremendous resentment for Hamas. Really, most of their leaders. This quote about from the Washington Post’s reporting on the Beijing announcement is telling:

“Come here to Earth and look at the hospitals in which there is not a single drop of blood that can save people’s lives,” said Kary Thabit, 40, who has been displaced 10 times in the war and called the factions “a joke.”

“Look at the people in the northern Gaza Strip who are dying of hunger,” she told The Washington Post by phone. “Look at how Israeli tanks are frolicking in the land of Gaza. These people do not represent me. They are just failed actors.”

As for China’s role in what happens next, I’ve written and spoken a fair bit about this since October 7th. This time last year China was talking about mediating between Israel and Palestine after a visit to Beijing from President Abbas. After the 10/7 attack, China shredded its relationship with Israel, and as a result it is not a credible partner in engaging with Israel and Palestine anymore. China needs to be seen as a great power and great powers need to be involved in the Gaza crisis, so China’s only possible role is to mediate among competing Palestinian factions. If it can manage to bring a meaningful consensus together among them, it will have a genuine diplomatic achievement. Again, I’m skeptical, but willing to suspend my disbelief.

I do worry about the possibility of China and Russia having greater influence in Palestine, but understand the logic; if I were Palestinian I wouldn’t expect much from the West. At the same time, I do think their experience with external powers has given them a healthy distrust. This bit from the New York Times’ reporting is consistent with the logic I expect:

Hamas and Fatah traveled to Beijing merely to placate their Chinese hosts, said Akram Atallah, a Palestinian columnist for Al-Ayyam, a Ramallah-based newspaper.

“They’re not going to China to make deals, develop cooperation and build a political partnership,” he said. “They’re going to honor China’s role.”

I imagine the thinking is, ‘Let’s play along with the Chinese and see what we get out of it.’

From the Chinese media: Xinhua has Foreign Minister Wang Yi offering a 3-step approach for solving the Palestinian solution:

The first step is to promote a comprehensive, lasting and sustainable ceasefire in the Gaza Strip as soon as possible and ensure humanitarian assistance and relief access. The international community should further unite on the issue of ceasefire.

The second step is to uphold the principle of "the Palestinians governing Palestine" and work together to promote post-war governance in Gaza. Gaza is an inseparable and important part of Palestine, and starting post-war reconstruction as soon as possible has become an urgent issue in the next stage. The international community should support Palestinian factions to form an interim government with national consensus to effectively manage Gaza and the West Bank.

The third step is to promote Palestine to become a full member of the United Nations and begin to implement the two-state solution. A more significant, more authoritative and more effective international peace conference should be supported, and a timetable and road map for this should be made.

From the PRC’s MOFA homepage:

Wang Yi pointed out that only when Palestinian factions speak as one can the voice of justice be loud and clear, and only when they join hands and march forward shoulder to shoulder can they succeed in their national liberation cause. The most important consensus from the Beijing talks is to achieve the reconciliation and unity among the 14 factions; the core outcome is the affirmation of the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) as the sole legitimate representative of all Palestinian people; the biggest highlight is the agreement on establishing an interim government of national reconciliation focusing on the post-conflict reconstruction of Gaza; and the strongest call is for truly establishing an independent State of Palestine in accordance with relevant U.N. resolutions. The key to the Palestinian reconciliation process is to bolster confidence, keep to the right direction, and make incremental progress. Only by making continuous efforts to build consensus and put it into practice can the reconciliation process yield more and more substantive progress and greater unity. Reconciliation is the internal affair of Palestinian factions, and cannot happen without international support. On the path toward reconciliation, China shares the same direction and destination with Arab and Islamic countries.

As for the joint declaration, I haven’t seen an official one yet but Jesse Marks has a translation of this Arabic version on his Substack, Coffee in the Desert. It’s consistent with other versions I’ve seen floating around the internet today.