I’m just about to board a flight to Canada and wanted to get a quick post out. There hasn’t been much change in China’s positioning in the Israel-Iran conflict. I’ll be trying to put my thoughts together for a longer essay while I’m in the air but it really comes down to a simple point that I keep making over and over: China does not have the capacity to play a meaningful role in this crisis. It cannot influence Israel. Maybe no country can right now. Israeli leaders seem to be locked in on regime change. I don’t know if they have the capacity for this. Frankly, as much as I think the Islamic Republic is a monstrous government, regime collapse is not an optimal outcome for the region. But back to China: nobody in Israel is going to be taking Beijing’s preferences under consideration.
Again, repeating myself here, but Iran needs air support. China doesn’t do this. China is not going to be able to give Iran what it needs in its moment of desperation. I don’t think Iranian leaders are thinking about Chinese engagement right now.
Other than Israel and the US, who has the capacity to influence events? I think the UAE, Saudi and Qatar are the second-level actors with the most at stake here, and they have channels with Israel and Iran. I imagine these three countries are the most active behind the scenes, and should be able to provide offramps.
Being called to board.
Xi says China 'deeply worried' about Israel-Iran conflict, urges de-escalation - Reuters. We finally hear from Xi on the crisis. It is a very predictable statement:
China is "deeply worried" about Israel's military operation against Iran that has escalated tensions in the Middle East, President Xi Jinping said on Tuesday, in his first public comments on the conflict that erupted last Friday."
All parties should work to de-escalate the conflict as soon as possible and prevent the situation from worsening further," Xi said, in comments quoted by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun’s Regular Press Conference on June 17, 2025 - PRC MoFA.
CGTN: Israel’s strikes on Iran have led to escalation of military conflict. Local people are facing severe security risks. Does China plan to evacuate Chinese nationals in Iran and Israel?
Guo Jiakun: Keeping our fellow nationals safe abroad is an absolute priority for the government. As soon as conflict broke out between Israel and Iran, the Chinese Foreign Ministry and our embassies and consulates in Iran and Israel activated the consular emergency response mechanism. We have asked both countries to effectively protect the safety and security of Chinese nationals and institutions, issued timely alerts and safety advisories, and stayed in close touch with local Chinese and institutions to provide instructions for safety precautions and emergency shelter. We are also providing active assistance to Chinese nationals evacuating from the region. Some of them have already been safely relocated to neighboring countries.
Our Ministry and relevant embassies and consulates are working with other government agencies to do everything possible to keep Chinese nationals in Iran and Israel safe and swiftly organize their evacuation. Chinese nationals in Israel and Iran, please contact our local embassies and consulates, or dial the consular service hotline 12308.
Anadolu Agency: U.S. President Donald Trump on his Truth Social platform wrote “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran” as Israel’s military continued its attacks on Iran’s capital. He said Iran should have signed “the deal”, which refers to the negotiations on the nation’s nuclear program. What is China’s comment? I wonder how do you see Washington’s attitude that is just one-sided and has let Israel do the attacks on Iran’s territories.
Guo Jiakun: The heating up of the Middle East region serves no one’s interests. To fan up the flames, use threats and exert pressure does not help deescalate the situation and will only aggravate tensions and enlarge the conflict. China calls on relevant parties, especially countries with special influence on Israel, to take up their due responsibilities and take immediate actions to cool down the situation and prevent further spread of the conflict.
Anadolu Agency: Israel’s military, during its attacks against Iran, targeted state television channel after the Defense Minister of Israel Katz said Iran’s broadcasting and radio facilities is about to disappear. The Committee to Protect Journalists condemned the attack and the Iranian side called it “criminal act” and “war crime.” What is China’s comment?
Guo Jiakun: China is deeply worried about the escalation of conflict between Israel and Iran. We have expressed serious concerns. We once again call on parties to take immediate measures to ease tensions as soon as possible and prevent the region from spiraling into greater turmoil. To put in place a ceasefire is of utmost urgency. Only dialogue and consultation can bring about lasting peace. We stand ready to maintain close communication with all parties and continue playing a constructive role for a deescalation.
Anadolu Agency: Will China take any initiative to start diplomatic attempt to stop the conflict between Israel and Iran? Iran is a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS. So my question is, will there be multilateral effort on behalf of these organizations?
Guo Jiakun: Since the conflict broke out, China is having communication with Iran, Israel and other parties for ceasefire and deescalation. Relevant international organizations have issued statements on the ongoing situation.
Let me stress that the use of force will never bring lasting peace, any international disputes should be resolved through dialogue and consultation, and only through common security can there be a fundamental solution for the legitimate concerns of all parties. China will continue to enhance communication with relevant parties to promote talks for peace and prevent the region from spiraling into greater turmoil.
Anadolu Agency: Does China have any concerns about interruption of energy supplies from Iran as conflict intensifies and Israel targets energy facilities operated by Iran?
Guo Jiakun: China is deeply concerned over Israel’s attacks on Iran and the subsequent spike of regional conflict. It is imperative for relevant parties to take immediate measures to ease tensions as soon as possible, prevent the region from spiraling into greater turmoil, and create conditions for returning to the right track of resolving issues through dialogue and negotiation.
Shenzhen TV: Yesterday foreign ministers of 21 Arab and Islamic countries, including Egypt, Jordan, the UAE, Pakistan, Bahrain, Türkiye, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Iraq, Oman, Qatar, and Kuwait released a joint statement on the conflicts between Israel and Iran. They emphasized the need to respect the sovereignty and territorial integrity of states and called for efforts of resolving disputes based on the principle of good neighborliness and through peaceful means. What’s China’s comment?
Guo Jiakun: Israel’s attacks on Iran have led to the spike of conflict in the region. It has become the world’s focus of attention. The most urgent priority is to bring about a ceasefire, take effective measures to avoid further escalation and prevent the region from spiraling into greater turmoil, and return to the track of seeking political settlement through dialogue and negotiation. This is the prevailing consensus of the international community. China welcomes the joint statement released by Egypt and other Arab and Islamic countries, and commends the effort of relevant countries in promoting deescalation. China stands ready to maintain communication with relevant parties and play a constructive role for the deescalation of the situation.
Anadolu Agency: This morning, the Chinese Embassy in Tel Aviv urged its citizens to leave the country, but we’ve noticed that there isn’t a similar leave warning for the Chinese citizens in Iran. Is there any change of the security status in that country as well?
Guo Jiakun: I answered this question just now. Let me reiterate that our Ministry and diplomatic missions, together with our colleagues from other departments, are doing everything possible to protect the safety of Chinese nationals in Iran and Israel and swiftly organize their evacuation. Chinese nationals in Israel and Iran can contact our local embassies and consulates or reach us through the consular service hotline 12308.
Wang Yi Has a Phone Call with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar - PRC MoFA. I missed this when it came out on June 14th; just sharing it here as a bookmark at this point.
On June 14, 2025, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Foreign Minister Wang Yi had a phone call with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar.
After listening to Gideon Sa'ar's outline of Israel's views on the current situation and Israel's position, Wang Yi said that China consistently advocates that any international disputes should be resolved through dialogue and consultation and opposes the use of force and sanctions. In light of this, China clearly opposes Israel's attack on Iran with military force in violation of international law. Especially when the international community is still seeking a political solution to the Iranian nuclear issue, this action is even more unacceptable. Israel and Iran are both important countries in the Middle East. The relationship between Israel and Iran bears on the overall situation of war and peace in the Middle East. The urgent task is to immediately take measures to avoid the escalation of the conflict, prevent the region from falling into greater turmoil, and return to the track of resolving issues through diplomatic means, which is also the general consensus of the international community.
Wang Yi briefed on his phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, emphasizing that the Middle East cannot remain forever under the shadow of conflict, and Israel should not continue living in the anxiety about war. The diplomatic means regarding the Iranian nuclear issue have not been exhausted, and there is still hope for a peaceful resolution. Force cannot bring lasting peace. Only by upholding the vision of common security can the legitimate concerns of all parties be thoroughly addressed. China has consistently approached and handled regional hotspot issues based on the merits of the matter itself, urging both Israel and Iran to resolve differences through dialogue and seek a way to peaceful coexistence. China is ready to play a constructive role in this regard. Wang Yi expressed the hope that the Israeli side will earnestly ensure the security and safety of Chinese institutions and personnel. Gideon Sa'ar said that the Israeli side has always attached importance to and will continue to ensure the security and safety of Chinese institutions and personnel.
China’s bid to mediate Israel-Iran conflict: How much sway does it really have? - Channel News Asia. I’m quoted in this piece from CNA, lots of other China-MENA watchers with useful insights.