6.14.2024
Wave VIII data from Arab Barometer, an op-ed from PRC ambassador to UAE, Chinese tourism to Middle East
The big story yesterday is from the Arab Barometer, which has released its Wave VIII polling data. The team’s reading is America Is Losing the Arab World and China Is Reaping the Benefits. They wrote a longer article for Foreign Affairs and I’m putting together some thoughts on it for a longer post that I’ll try to get out next week. Michael Robbins, the director of the Arab Barometer, joined me on the China-MENA Podcast in 2022 to discuss regional perceptions of China that he and his team track; it’s definitely worth a listen. One of the points that he brought up was how dramatically opinions about China fluctuated over relatively short periods of time:
we saw that it was relatively popular in the last surveys we did face-to-face in 2018 to 19. The citizens wanted closer economic ties with China. But we've seen that decreasing now. Actually, then two cases in the case of Palestine and Jordan in 20-point declines in only three or four years in terms of the desire for closer economic ties with China. And many of the other countries around the region, we've seen that this is actually also in decline-- in Morocco, Sudan, and Libya, we've seen a ten-point drop in just three or four years.
I think this is relevant because the positive perceptions about China in the region are often based on a relatively shallow pool of experience with or expertise on China. I get the impression that a lot of the positive views expressed reflect dissatisfaction with American policy more than appreciation for what China’s doing. Like I said, I’ll write in more depth about this soon, but for the time being, I’d recommend you read my post from earlier this week if you missed it; I think the conversation with regional analysts about China is especially relevant in the wake of this polling data from the Arab Barometer.
Other stories from the past couple of days:
The UAE will continue to be an important leader in China-Arab relations - The National (UAE). An op-ed from PRC ambassador to the Emirates, Zhang Yiming. He refers to the UAE as “an Arab country with the widest, deepest and most fruitful ties with China,” and writes
the UAE remains China’s largest non-oil trading partner and largest export market in the region. The UAE is also the largest destination for Chinese investment in Arab countries, with investment flow to the Emirates exceeding $1.7 billion in 2023, accounting for 60 per cent of China’s total investment in the Arab region. The UAE’s own investment in China increased by 120 per cent year-on-year, accounting for 90 per cent of Arab countries’ investment there.
I’ve written about this a lot, but if you’re new to the newsletter or my writing, I think the UAE is the load-bearing pillar of China’s Middle East policy. Saudi and Iran get a lot of notice, but there is simply no other country in the region that covers as many bases for the PRC than the Emirates. For a deeper look, here’s a relatively short piece I published for Observer Research Foundation last year in a collection edited by Kabir Taneja.
As China's post-Covid travel boom hits, the Middle East is where all roads lead - South China Morning Post. Top Middle East destinations for Chinese tourists according to this article are the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, “while Qatar, Morocco and Iran are also in the mix.” The article cites cheap tickets, a spike in frequency of direct flights, and ease of getting a visa. I spoke with someone in the UAE recently who was involved in the policy process of providing visa-free entry for Chinese; she said the policy was suggested and implemented in a matter of days. There’s a big appetite for Chinese tourism revenue in the region.
Data shows there has been a triple-digit growth in bookings to key Middle Eastern destinations in the first three months of this year compared with last year, according to Trip.com Group, China's largest online travel agency.
The UAE received a total of 1.2 million Chinese tourists last year, the country's tourism body revealed in June, adding that the tourist figure "is expected to achieve a significant increase this year".
This piece says 100,000 Chinese tourists visited Saudi Arabia last year, and the Saudi government’s goal is 5 million by 2030. That seems far-fetched, but the Kingdom has been making significant strides in developing its tourism industry over the past couple of years as part of its Vision 2030. Articles like this one in The New York Times last month make a strong case for Saudi as a tourist destination.
Morocco is getting in on the Chinese tourism bandwagon too. Chinese Vice-Minister of Culture and Tourism Rao Quan was in Rabat this week and signed a cultural cooperation agreement for 2024-2028, part of which includes mechanisms to boost tourism flows.
China’s COSCO Shipping Ports reportedly to invest $375mln in Egypt - Mubasher. A short one for my friend Jean-Marc Blanchard, who is always looking for news about Chinese port investment. It looks like Ain Sokhna will see an expansion of COSCO facilities there. I wrote a bit about Egyptian ports in this 2022 essay for Singapore’s Middle East Institute - Chinese port and industrial park projects in the Middle East is a really interesting story that needs more analysis.
Libya-China: an economic forum planned in Tripoli by the end of the year - Nova News. More momentum in this bilateral, following the sideline meeting held in Beijing during the CASCF. I’m putting my money on the table: Libya’s the next MENA country to get a partnership agreement from China. According to this story,
The main objective of this forum will be to facilitate the work of the private sector, improve economic cooperation, promote exchange visits and establish joint cooperation committees between Libya and China.
In the meantime, I’m going to be reading up on China-Libya, and China-North Africa in general, as I think we’re going to see a lot of movement in the Maghreb.
Raisi foreign policy legacy: A Chinese perspective - Tehran Times. A short op-ed from Jin Liangxiang, from the Shanghai Institute for International Studies. There’s nothing especially noteworthy here but Jin is one of the more astute Chinese Iran specialists I’ve met and he’s worth following to get a read on Chinese attitudes about Iran.
China’s next moon mission to include Egypt and Bahrain, member of US Artemis Accords - South China Morning Post. Another example of the many ways China’s engaging the region. I’m researching the expansion of Beidou satellite tech into the Middle East for something I’m writing, and space programs are an interesting facet of cooperation. More on this to come.
Have a great weekend.