Another in my series of video conversations, this time with Camille Lons from the European Council on Foreign Relations about her May 2024 policy brief, East meets middle: China's blossoming relationship with Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Her report provides a great overview of developments in the China-Saudi and China-UAE bilaterals, and gives a clear-minded set of policy recommendations for the EU that I think other governments would find useful.
The summary:
The blossoming but still immature relationship between China and the two key Gulf states, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, has implications that reach far beyond the Middle East.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE are emerging as key middle powers, while China’s role in the Gulf is part of its growing assertiveness and ambition on the global stage.
These relationships are driven by structural changes in the international energy market, increasing multipolarity in the global power distribution, and the effect of the growing US-China competition on geopolitics.
The EU and its member states barely figure into these dynamics, but they clearly have interests involved and do have cards to play. They should not seek to directly counter Chinese influence in the Gulf, but rather to build their own effective partnerships with both Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Also, during our conversation she pointed out that this followed a previous report that she put together for the ECFR in 2019 (which I contributed to, along with Sun Degang and Nasir Al-Tamimi), China’s Great Game in the Middle East. It’s really interesting to think about how much has changed in China-MENA in the five years since we wrote that report. I haven’t read it in years - curious to hear how it holds up, if any of you are willing to have a read.
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